May 1, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Power Cry | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Elusive Force | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Greeleys Ice | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ripe Attack | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dom the Bomb | 1.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Magi | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Be Authentic | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kuringai | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Little Chick | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Irish Halo | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | No Interest | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Lily | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Present of Hero | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Eleventh Hour | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Azrael | 0.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Town Agenda | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lawlessness | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Z U At the Races | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Savage | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | China Pearl | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arbitrary | 3.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Antecedence | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irina’s Hero | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cookin Roses | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gotta B the Salsa | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Attack | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Empty Holster | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Night Things | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Two Cookie Rule | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | High Spirits | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bahamian Park | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Draw the Line | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Violent Fight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Julio Tutwiler | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cosmic Treasure | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gold Incense | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Implication | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | King’s Story | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Delft Blue | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Rag Tag | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Samyaza | 12.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Own the Town | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Draft Capital | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Russian Alphabet | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | New Year Surprise | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dynablue | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soul Coaxing | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silent Steve | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clarestown | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | High On Sugar | 12.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Kichiro | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lead Star | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Ridge | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Zanforce | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cadet Captain | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | One Way Home | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Penalty Shot | 4.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hinton | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Landofthepharaohs | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.