April 30, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bayshore Foxes | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pop a Choc | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Powder River | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Favorite Sin | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mucho Macho Momma | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hindsight | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Treasure Lane | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Anamuya | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kizzy B | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seaside Retreat | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Front Street | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Norma Jean B. | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Distorted Verve | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Red Hot and Blue | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Musical Cat | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love in the Air | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Zainalarab | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Guana Cay | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Australasia | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Amalfi Princess | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rookery | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Platinum Sky | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Big Time | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | No Mo’ Spending | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hatmaker Holiday | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coppelia | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | American West | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Another Woman | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Illiogami | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tabor Hall | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Lorin | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bow Bow Girl | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Minute Waltz | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Malloy | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Polka Polenta | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Len Lo Lady | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Spooky Channel | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Temple | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ever Dangerous | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Fighting Seabee | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Big Dreaming | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Tide | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Finnick the Fierce | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sugoi | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ramsey Solution | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Atone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Cullum Road | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Alysheba S. Presented By Sentient Jet
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Maxfield | 0.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Roadster | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chess Chief | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sonneman | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Attachment Rate | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Visitant | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Edgewood S. Presented By Newport Racing & Gaming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Aunt Pearl (IRE) | 0.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gift List (GB) | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Zaajel | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Postnup | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Queen of the Green | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Barista | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Line Dancing | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Troienne S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shedaresthedevil | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dunbar Road | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Finite | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Envoutante | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sanenus (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paris Lights | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bajan Girl | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Smithfield
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Slumber Party | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kalypso | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Li’l Tootsie | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Obligatory | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Dayoutoftheoffice | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Souper Sensational | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Abrogate | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Caramel Swirl | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Make Mischief | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Windmill | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cantata | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Euphoric | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Sysco
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Sombeyay | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fast Boat | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Carotari | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Diamond Oops | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fiya | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Just Might | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guildsman (FR) | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Johnny Unleashed | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Classy John | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Remark | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ambassador Luna | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Longines Kentucky Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Malathaat | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Search Results | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Clairiere | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Travel Column | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pass the Champagne | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Millefeuille | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crazy Beautiful | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pauline’s Pearl | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maracuja | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Moraz | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Will’s Secret | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Coach | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ava’s Grace | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Competitive Speed | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mintd (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | More Than Unusual | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Woke Up to Aces | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Choate Bridge | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Tizahra | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Abby Hatcher (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Alnaseem (GB) | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Teenage Kicks | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Color Me Pretty | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Miss Mosaic | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiltingatwindmills | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Movie Moxy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Enjoyitwhilewecan | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | La Babia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Brassy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Microcap | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Luna Fortis | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sara Sea | 50.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Magic Quest | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Smith’s Point | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liberty Isle | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Played Hard | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Only Kidding | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Portilla | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bizzy Echo | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lonely June | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Altered Shot | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Christmas Poem | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Callen’s Charisma | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bahia Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Jim’s Bronze Star | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.