April 30, 2021 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kenai Cool | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Can She Scoot | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hey Hey | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | R Marie | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady Express | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Diva | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Hatchet Creek | 1.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Fefo | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | White Mist | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Lighted Road | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Distinct Thunder | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rocket Ride | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Off to the Beach | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charlie’s Heir | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Can’t Hide From Me | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Long Station | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Si Es Goya | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Contraction | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mr. Luv Maker | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maxximum Energy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sacra Hoxen | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Lost in Manhattan | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mind Your Own Biz | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chicks for Free | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Talis Park Grad | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sand Mountain | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Will Knows | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Oil Money | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smokin’ Jay | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Valiant Vinny | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Merlin’s Song | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Aggressivity | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Palio | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Alphalfa | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lawlessness | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tap the Mojo | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cammack | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Candy Store | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Memory Bank | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Broth | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Green Mo’ster | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Bariley | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Baroque | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Romantic Attack | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Windy City Girl | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kingsbury Dream | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Arch Flyer | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vegan Goes Best | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunday Scheming | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Catnip Kitten | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer Express | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Lily | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tapalong | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | The Gray Blur | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Duchossois | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overpraise | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honest to Goodness | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Canihaveitlikethat | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Upham | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rio Seco | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Campioni | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.