April 28, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Man On the Moon | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Scabbard | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mine Own Star | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Changing Lanes | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rivers of Lite | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Petit Verdot | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big in the City | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Nick | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Toobadsosad | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | El Piquin | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nip N Tuck | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Redefinition | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mollie Kate | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Mila | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | My Girl Steve | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dutch Clover | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Murgatroyd | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Golden Twist | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sassywithattitude | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tranquil Times | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Screenwriter | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hollywood Hoopla | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tynan | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hashtag Winner | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Native Charm | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Joy of Treasure | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tactical Edge | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Haunt | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | The Sound | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Went West | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Little Menace | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tough Love | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | American Tattoo (ARG) | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | La Pulcinela | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Delta Traveler | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Caught Looking | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mama Lou | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spy a Star | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Cookie Run | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fortuna Adiuvat | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bethy | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Home | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Impressive One | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Frozay All Day | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Miss Pablo | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Candywrapper Crazy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Badger Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Meet the Beauty | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Sum Kinda Pretty | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Kind Ways | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lipstikliesnlovers | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Laynlomakndough | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Transient (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Perhaps Tonight (IRE) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mint Edition | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mulsanne (IRE) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Scarabea | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Temple Belle | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | My Sweet Story | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Suki | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Zawadi | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | The Big Kahuna | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | He’s in Charge | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ready to Answer | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Quixotic | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Flintstone | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oncoming Train | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | On Your Mark | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lock Up | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Kentucky Juvenile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Averly Jane | 1.60 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bohemian Frost | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shesgotattitude | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Bound | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vodka N Water | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bode by You | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baytown Frosty | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kaufymaker | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Cool Rags | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bear Alley | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sometimes Always | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bold Minister | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Niangua | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Spheroid | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bamalama | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Artwork | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ornery | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.