April 27, 2021 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Solomonic | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mississippi | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Charlie’sarchangel | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kadesh | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Rock Star Parking | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sunny Isle Beach | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Polished Gem | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | It’sfiftyshadetime | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Artie’s Rose | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parkin in the Rear | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Simply Beguiled | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Youens | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Volnay | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Misty Veil | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 5 | Zebra Cake | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Wrinkles Your Nose | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tone My Betty | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Right Trappe | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Culture Icon | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Awesummer | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Knopfler | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Command Central | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boone’s Spirit | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rushinguy | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bane | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bronze Beast | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Treasury | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | There Goes Harvard | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mystical Man | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Happy American | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ghost of the Mambo | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Continuation | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cross Check | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Country Captain | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cockalorum | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Enraged | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Charge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Prairie Wings | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mary’s France (FR) | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Take Charge Ro | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bullseye Beauty | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Nope (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Urban Fairytale | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Social Dilemma | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vezpa (BRZ) | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sail On Ellen | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mused (GB) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Taranta (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tappin Into Summer | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Treasure Lane | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ununderstandable | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Coltonator | 4.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shoplifted | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sir Alfred James | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Verb | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Straight Shot | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Binding Agreement | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | American Butterfly | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Noren | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Madison’s Luna | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight S. Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Lone Rock | 1.60 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | You’re to Blame | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Portos | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ry’s the Guy | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dack Janiel’s | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Plus Que Parfait | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jumper | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burning Bright | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Natural Power (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Convict Pike | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stage Ready | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Uncapped | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Optimus Kat | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chantry Flats | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cancellara | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Decision Maker | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Surf and Turf | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Optimistic Valor | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 13 | Kokokomo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bugle Barry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Glory Road | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 14 | Pit Boss | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Make Noise | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.