April 23, 2021 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dream Fly | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Poppy Flower | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speak Unity | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kavod | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Action Potential | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Agent Creed | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saratoga Flash | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Conquest | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Clever Fellow | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Little Risk | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B C Glory Days | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tales of Saratoga | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | A Colt Named Susie | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cox’s Ledge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Slam Dunk | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Brazil | 0.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Invaluable | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Prairie Fire | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Truth Hurts | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Multiple Expansion | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grape Nuts Warrior | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bernardino | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ocala Dream | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bar Fourteen | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Neuro | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lucky Brody | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bolgheri | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | American Piper | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Triple Digit | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | B B’s Rocket | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bustinmygroove | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Overdressed | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Investment Grade | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Texas Reward | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Stay Home Mama | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Feyre | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Virginia Joy (GER) | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Capital Structure (GB) | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kissing Frogs | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kilkea | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crystalle | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Canoe | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flashing Red | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Ultimate Irony | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | A Vow of Beauty | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | That Quality | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Croi Mor | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Z’finale | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Whichwaytomalibu | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Allied Invasion | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ohyoudidntknow | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Amistad | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Paint Music for Me | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Bellamy Dolce | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Irish Giant | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | I See the Stars | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Re Created | 20.00 | 11.4 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glenn Likes Gin | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Wicked Charm | 30.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Affirmed Success S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Captain Bombastic | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Engine | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winners Laugh | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wudda U Think Now | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Runningwscissors | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bank On Shea | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Futuro | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Public Information | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Jarreau | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Easy Empire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Stand With Mo | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cracker Box Palace | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Declareatruce | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Holy Emperor | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Lotsnlotsofchrome | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Maclean’s Legacy | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Grecian Pharoah | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Matty’s Marauder | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.