Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 10, 2021

April 10, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Best of Greeley 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Get Hammered 2.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 City Drifter 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Artemus Citylimits 1.80 3.3 6-1
2 2 Smart Time 5.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Grove Daddy 12.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Baby I’m Perfect 2.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Money for Mischief 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Zanesville 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Walkoff 2.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Saintly Samurai 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Americain Joey 20.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Revenio 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tez 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Turnagain Tide 1.60 1.8 3-1
7 7 Atoka 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Winning Prospect 6.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Extreme 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 Rare Stripe 4.50 4.3 8-1
5 5 Call It Love 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Assembly Point (BRZ) 20.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Stonecastle 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Fulsome 2.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Ethical Judgement 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Aviano 2.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Hard Strike 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Notary 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 British Royalty 8.00 5.2 10-1
3A 3 Floriform 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Private Island 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bold Victory 1.40 2.4 4-1
7 7 Midlaner 4.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Rogue Element 4.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Don’tshowweakness 10.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Lemon and Diem 8.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Perfect Painting 12.00 5.6 11-1
10 10 Launch Pad 10.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 King Zion 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 He Who Dares Wins 50.00 9.2 17-1
9 9 Beau Book 30.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Count Your Pennies 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adara 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 The Flasche 50.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 West Will Power 2.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 In Love (BRZ) 3.50 3.6 7-1
4A 4 Lord Guinness 4.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Uncle Kick 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Almashriq 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Payne 8.00 4.8 9-1
2A 2 Noren 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Army Scout 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Blue Jays 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ben Ali S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Night Ops 1.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Silver Dust 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Beau Luminarie 3.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Treasure Trove 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Sprawl 10.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Giant’s Causeway S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Jakarta 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Into Mystic 2.00 3 6-1
3 3 Elle Z 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 In Good Spirits 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Karak 8.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Change of Control 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 A Bit of Both 8.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Oooh Barracuda 50.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Fashionable Lady 50.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Dixieincandyland 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Stonestreet Lexington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Proxy 1.20 2.3 4-1
10 10 Starrininmydreams 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Bezos 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Unbridled Honor 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Noble Reflection 15.00 4 7-1
2 2 Swiftsure 5.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 King Fury 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Hockey Dad 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 It’s My House 30.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Ultimate Badger 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Coolmore Jenny Wiley S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Micheline 2.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Tamahere (FR) 2.50 2 4-1
3 3 Juliet Foxtrot (GB) 3.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Etoile (FR) 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 La Signare (FR) 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Maxim Rate 10.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Six Pack 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Stage Raider 3.50 2.4 4-1
8 8 Private Network 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Windcracker 6.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Harvard 5.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Road Bible 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Cronus 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Complicate 20.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Hope and Dignity 30.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Derby House 20.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Mr Annoying 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sensible Jim 30.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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