April 9, 2021 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Pi Yo Princess | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cardioversion | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Predetermined | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kiss Theory | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zebra Cake | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clearly Smashing | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Epicurean | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | White Winged Dove | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kizzy B | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Norma Jean B. | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Closet Shopper | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maybe Later | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Honor Hop | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flauto | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Absam | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nineeleventurbo | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sliabh Aughty (FR) | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Kabong | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seminole Beach | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hardison | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Potus | 10.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jimmy Dan | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sergeant Strwberry | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Temple City Blvd | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Snow’s Island | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ollie’s Gold | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bernadette the Jet | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lets Take It Izzy | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spy a Star | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Some Nights | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ready N Waiting | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Queen Bee | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Super Lucy | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stanchion | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ones | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orient Night | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Granite Candy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Slainte | 20.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9B | 9 | Stunning Princess | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Office Party | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lijana | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Editor At Large (IRE) | 2.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Runaway Rockette | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fabricate | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14B | 14 | Lazy Summer Day | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Viburnum | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bullseye Beauty | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Arm Candy | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flying Aletha | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mrs. O’Connell | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ms Wicked | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | American West | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gote Go | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Movie Moxy | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Market Rumor | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spice Is Nice | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maedean | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stop War | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prescience | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Tvg Limestone Turf Sprint S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Tobys Heart | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | New Boss | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alda | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Goin’ Good | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Salvaje | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Phantom Vision | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Inajiffy | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Navratilova | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Threatlevelmidnite (GB) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Carimba | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Igloo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Campanelle (IRE) | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Nimbostratus (FR) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Answer In | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aloha West | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gozilla | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Growl Tiger | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Wild Behavior | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Schmoozin | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Man Flintstone | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | King Snake | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Maker’s Mark Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Darain (GB) | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Raging Bull (FR) | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ride a Comet | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Field Pass | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sacred Life (FR) | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Somelikeithotbrown | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Get Smokin | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hit the Road | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flying Scotsman | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Caramel Swirl | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Dean | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Hot and Blue | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Front Street | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Musical Cat | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Floris | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fine Cotton | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Frozay All Day | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | In a Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.