February 20, 2021 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Girl | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rocking Redhead | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Noble Hearted | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bestrella (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Equal Measure | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Applecross (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | This Tea | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arctic Roll (GB) | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Go Big Blue Nation | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hockey Dad | 1.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Swift as I Am | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Teton Valley | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sabuda | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Me Likey | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tony Ann | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Isn’t She Lovely | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shore Break (IRE) | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just a Kiss Away | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Nobu | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blame the Queen | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ghostly Gal | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honey Jar | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | June Gloom | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Theluteismine | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Coupe | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shotgun Rider | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Musical Gem | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Evenerevenworse | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Roan Ranger | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bravestone | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Ward ‘n Jerry | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tartini | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shadow Sphinx | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Murad Khan (FR) | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lure Him In | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Navy Armed Guard | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maestro Dearte | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Motown Music | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Magician | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mulberry Street | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Charlito | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Daddy Go | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Buena Vista S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Charmaine’s Mia | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warren’s Showtime | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Going to Vegas | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mucho Unusual | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Red Lark (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sedamar | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sloane Garden (GB) | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Heathers Grey | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bohemian Bourbon | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nasty | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Made in Karoo | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Simmer Down | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Paynter’s Love | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Jewel | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hatshepsut | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Varoma | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Backtoflash | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Here Comes Ralphie | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brewed Big | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Copper Wings | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cruel Intention | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coast of Roan | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Symphonic | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Southern Horse (ARG) | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | I Got No Munny | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Jetovator | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Best Chance | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Psycho Dar | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fantastic Day | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cool as Ever | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Star Rock | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.