Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 19, 2021

February 19, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Margie’s Money 4.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Sworn Silence 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Money Inthe Starrs 2.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 As Fast as You Can 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Kenai Cool 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Altered Dream 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Melody Rose 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Paddy O 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Simply Beguiled 3.50 2.3 4-1
2 1 Unexplainable 4.50 3 6-1
9 5 Rose of Paris 4.50 4.3 8-1
8 4 Galileas Promise 6.00 5 9-1
6 3 Media Mendacity 8.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Crazy Good 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 You’re Doing Fine 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Goingtoagogo 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bee House 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Twilight Fantasy 4.00 2 4-1
6 5 Hamazing Wisdom 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Day Trip 2.50 2.5 5-1
8 7 Breakin Daylight 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Money Biz 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Goforthewinecourse 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 He’s a Lucky Man 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Cape Town Willy 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Lively Lea 3.50 3 6-1
3 2 Explosively Hot 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Glory to Me 4.00 4.6 9-1
9 7 Diamond Lady 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 5 The Missing Piece 15.00 6.1 11-1
10 8 Lucky Harborage 15.00 6.5 12-1
5 4 Magic Coy 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 3 Gerrie Lou 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Nottodayfellas 30.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Gifted Talent 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bad Gal Riri 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 No Ka Oi 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Easy to Miss 3.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Gold Account 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Maga Country 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Just Gun It 6.00 4 8-1
6 5 Tapit’s Temple 15.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 O’Connor 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Charity for All 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Cabo’s Rumor 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 War Count 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Luck of the Draw 8.00 3.4 7-1
5 3 Stuck in Vegas 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 7 Greeley Went West 10.00 4.1 8-1
10 8 The Mo U No 6.00 5 10-1
3 2 Palvera 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 4 Whatdatpay Ray 20.00 8 15-1
7 5 Arctic Rose 30.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Budro Talking 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Papa’s Boy 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Mr. Four Sevens 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Man On the Moon 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Sovereign Change 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Screenplay 4.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Double Tough Tiger 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Okudah 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Haleys Sailor 4.50 3.6 7-1
7 7 Powerful Man 20.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Guitar Slim 4.00 2.8 5-1
8 5 Papa Bro 4.50 3.4 6-1
9 6 Zelig 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 3 Silver Galaxy 8.00 5 9-1
3 2 Rose’s Galaxy 12.00 5.2 10-1
11 8 Keys to the Palace 12.00 6.6 12-1
2 1 Cajun Up 15.00 6.9 13-1
7 4 Fast Verdict 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 8 Icy Charlie 5.00 SCRATCH
1A 10 Saturday’s Gold 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Ripittotheright 5.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Drakkar 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 7 Miller’s Pointe 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 4 Fluffpoint 8.00 2.5 5-1
9 6 Faith’s Raceday 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Thunk 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Mister Don 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Captain Noble 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 5 Babe Reed 30.00 7.7 15-1
4 4 Coffee County 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Shack Partout 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 War Player 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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