February 19, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Margie’s Money | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sworn Silence | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Money Inthe Starrs | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | As Fast as You Can | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kenai Cool | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Altered Dream | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Melody Rose | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Paddy O | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Simply Beguiled | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Unexplainable | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Rose of Paris | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Galileas Promise | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Media Mendacity | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Crazy Good | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | You’re Doing Fine | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Goingtoagogo | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Bee House | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Twilight Fantasy | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hamazing Wisdom | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Day Trip | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Breakin Daylight | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Money Biz | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Goforthewinecourse | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s a Lucky Man | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cape Town Willy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Lively Lea | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Explosively Hot | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Glory to Me | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Diamond Lady | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Missing Piece | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lucky Harborage | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Magic Coy | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gerrie Lou | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nottodayfellas | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gifted Talent | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bad Gal Riri | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | No Ka Oi | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Easy to Miss | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gold Account | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maga Country | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Gun It | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tapit’s Temple | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | O’Connor | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Charity for All | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Cabo’s Rumor | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Count | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Luck of the Draw | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Stuck in Vegas | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Greeley Went West | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | The Mo U No | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Palvera | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Whatdatpay Ray | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Arctic Rose | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Budro Talking | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Papa’s Boy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mr. Four Sevens | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Man On the Moon | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Change | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Screenplay | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Tough Tiger | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Okudah | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Haleys Sailor | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Powerful Man | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Guitar Slim | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Papa Bro | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Zelig | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Silver Galaxy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rose’s Galaxy | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Keys to the Palace | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cajun Up | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Fast Verdict | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 8 | Icy Charlie | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 10 | Saturday’s Gold | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Ripittotheright | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Drakkar | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Miller’s Pointe | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fluffpoint | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Faith’s Raceday | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thunk | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mister Don | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Noble | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Babe Reed | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Coffee County | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shack Partout | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | War Player | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.