Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 18, 2021

February 18, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Rue Lala 3.00 2.9 6-1
2 1 Louleigh 2.50 3.4 6-1
3 2 Thirstyprospect 4.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Mollys Flyin High 6.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Bodie On Pointe 6.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Abigail G 10.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Totally Grace 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 3 Treasury 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 2 Absam 3.00 3.7 7-1
10 5 Gold Double 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 1 Ekati’s Verve 12.00 6.7 13-1
9 4 Graves Mill Road 12.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Intentional Walk 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Summer Palace 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Sliabh Aughty (FR) 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Reigning Spirit 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Defied 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Amazing American 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 5 King’s Prayer 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 2 Diamond Palace 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 1 First Metal Count 3.50 3.6 7-1
7 6 Disc One for Pete 5.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Pillage Da Village 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 4 Ide B a Winner 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 3 It’suptoyoupal 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Closing American 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 7 Deanos Cape 4.00 2.4 5-1
9 5 Matheson 5.00 3 6-1
10 6 In the Arch 6.00 4.6 9-1
3 1 Briar Jumper 6.00 5 9-1
6 3 On Base 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 4 Botswana Taps 20.00 7.6 14-1
5 2 Pocket Player 20.00 9.2 17-1
1 8 Day Trip 4.00 SCRATCH
1A 11 Bad Boy 4.00 SCRATCH
2 1 East Lex 3.00 SCRATCH
4 3 One Hitter 30.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Calculate 20.00 SCRATCH
11 12 Jack the Ripper (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Junior Bug 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Cold Hearted Wench 2.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Sharperthanme 5.00 2.5 5-1
8 6 Orb’s Soul 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 5 Miss Commish 4.50 3.2 6-1
5 4 Summer Express 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 7 Supersport Sally 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 2 Meg and Clair 30.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Smart Pegasus 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Smoothoutthetrack 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 5 Woman With a Book 3.00 3 6-1
3 2 Bring Me a Check 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Majestic Sign 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 3 Leader of Men 8.00 4.8 9-1
10 4 Dickinson’s Image 50.00 8.9 17-1
1 1 Candizar 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Clint Maroon (GB) 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Gunnison 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Half Ours to Keep 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Antarctic 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Foldover 15.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Jo’s Bold Cat 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Maraud 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Contact Tracing 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 3 S Man 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 4 Citadel 4.50 1.9 4-1
7 6 Run Far 5.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Birthday Party 8.00 3.3 6-1
6 5 Macho Mark 10.00 4 8-1
1 1 White Mist 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Okudah 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Desoto’s War 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Shackleford Strong 8.00 2.4 5-1
10 7 Brew Crew 4.00 3.2 6-1
8 6 In Sky We Trust 8.00 4 7-1
3 3 Schmoozin 4.50 4.7 9-1
6 4 Tap Attack 10.00 5 9-1
7 5 Sangio Vasy 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Skip the Smalltalk 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 On the Muscle 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Suggested 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Citizen West 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 No Quarter 3.00 3.3 6-1
12 11 Our Last Shot 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 5 Cajun Navy 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Western Star 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Impressive Greely 12.00 6 11-1
5 4 Flashburn 8.00 6.2 12-1
11 10 Southern Light 10.00 6.5 12-1
9 8 C F Johnathan 6.00 6.7 13-1
7 6 Primeinterestrate 20.00 8.9 17-1
13 12 Minister’s Medal 30.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Special Storm 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Antietam Road 4.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Clever Prince 20.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Heza Fortune 30.00 11.4 22-1
10 9 R W ‘s Retirement 30.00 12.3 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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