Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Tuesday, February 16, 2021

February 16, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Chop Chop Charlie 4.00 3.1 6-1
10 5 Cap Rock Miner 4.50 3.3 6-1
4 2 Original Intent 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 3 Zanesville 1.60 5 10-1
11 6 G’s Turn 12.00 5.1 10-1
8 4 Yeowzer 20.00 6 11-1
1 1 Take That for Data 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Foldover 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Cadet Captain 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 World Tax War (IRE) 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Armchair Jockey 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hong Kong Strong 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Miss Laughalot 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 G’s a Looker 4.00 4.4 8-1
9 7 Shooting Stick 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Flat Out Crypto 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 Eve’s Delight 12.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Kimmy 12.00 6.6 12-1
10 8 Seeking the Stars 12.00 7 13-1
1A 10 Anotherinthefire 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Custom for Aly 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Sarah Adriana 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Hold Me Black 2.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Tringale 3.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Coltonator 3.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Yes He Can 6.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Omega Moon 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Hilton Magic 6.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 8 Payday Too 3.00 2.2 4-1
11 6 Guitar Tribute 4.00 4.2 8-1
7 4 Love Conquers 8.00 4.6 9-1
15 9 City Park 4.50 4.7 9-1
6 3 Run Rocket 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 5 Impressive Student 15.00 5.4 10-1
2 1 Izzy’s Baby Boy 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 2 Im a Cowboy Too 20.00 9.8 19-1
1 11 Mangelsen 3.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Eden Grey’s Kitten 8.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Venn 20.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Don Guillermo 20.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Louisiana Moon 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Imindycatbirdseat 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 I’m d’Cat 20.00 SCRATCH
13 7 Why Joey Why 30.00 11.8 22-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Save 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Makeajoyfulnoise 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 3 Puye Timing 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 2 Maystart 4.50 2.9 6-1
6 5 Taylor’s Tourist 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Malibu Bird 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Tecate Time 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 3 Peace Broker 5.00 3 6-1
14 6 Adventuring 5.00 4 8-1
9 5 Naughty Rendezvous 8.00 4.3 8-1
15 7 Solar Reflection 15.00 7.3 14-1
16 8 D’oro Forever 15.00 7.8 15-1
8 4 Let’s Skedaddle 15.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Walk Me Home 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Spare Cash 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Love in the Air 4.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Girl’s On Fire 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Honor and Justice 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fairchild 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Office Party 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gathered Flowers 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Megan’s Clara 20.00 10.4 20-1
1 1 Speed Lane 20.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Lady of Luxury 1.80 1.7 3-1
8 7 Sixth Street 5.00 2 4-1
5 4 Gianna’s Gift 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 2 Goulding 3.50 2.4 4-1
6 5 April’s No Fool 8.00 3 6-1
7 6 American Legend 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Zebecca 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Listen Up 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Into Mystic 1.80 2.3 4-1
2 2 Elle Z 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 3 She’s My Gem 15.00 6.5 12-1
10 4 Misty Day 20.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Dalika (GER) 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ready for Change 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Winning Envelope 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Change of Control 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Jeanie B (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 In Good Spirits 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Wild for Wycliff 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Warrant 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 5 Koolhaus 4.50 2 4-1
9 7 Continental Coins 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 4 Autumn Rage 8.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Abdan 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 6 Run Fast 8.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Pharoahswheel 12.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Gunner Paul 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Shackleford Strong 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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