February 16, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Chop Chop Charlie | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Cap Rock Miner | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Original Intent | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Zanesville | 1.60 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | G’s Turn | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Yeowzer | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take That for Data | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Foldover | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cadet Captain | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | World Tax War (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Armchair Jockey | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hong Kong Strong | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Laughalot | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | G’s a Looker | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shooting Stick | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flat Out Crypto | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Eve’s Delight | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kimmy | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Seeking the Stars | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Anotherinthefire | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Custom for Aly | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Sarah Adriana | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hold Me Black | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tringale | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coltonator | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yes He Can | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Omega Moon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hilton Magic | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Payday Too | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Guitar Tribute | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Love Conquers | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 9 | City Park | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Run Rocket | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Impressive Student | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Im a Cowboy Too | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 11 | Mangelsen | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Eden Grey’s Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Venn | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Don Guillermo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Louisiana Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Imindycatbirdseat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | I’m d’Cat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 7 | Why Joey Why | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Save | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Makeajoyfulnoise | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Puye Timing | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Maystart | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Taylor’s Tourist | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Bird | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tecate Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | Peace Broker | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Adventuring | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Naughty Rendezvous | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 7 | Solar Reflection | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 8 | D’oro Forever | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Let’s Skedaddle | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Walk Me Home | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Spare Cash | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Love in the Air | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Girl’s On Fire | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Honor and Justice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Fairchild | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Office Party | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Gathered Flowers | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Megan’s Clara | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speed Lane | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady of Luxury | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sixth Street | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gianna’s Gift | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Goulding | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | April’s No Fool | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | American Legend | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Zebecca | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Listen Up | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Mardi Gras S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Into Mystic | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elle Z | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | She’s My Gem | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | Misty Day | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dalika (GER) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ready for Change | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Winning Envelope | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Change of Control | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jeanie B (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | In Good Spirits | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Wild for Wycliff | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warrant | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Koolhaus | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Continental Coins | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Autumn Rage | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Abdan | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Run Fast | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pharoahswheel | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gunner Paul | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Shackleford Strong | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.