February 13, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dark Money | 0.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sicilia Mike | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Playthatfunnymusic | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kosciuszko | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Desert Lights | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | San Juan Diego | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Afleeting Glance | 1.20 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s an Alpha | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Idaka | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mizzys Image | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Red Girl | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Central Capital | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sophie Fatale | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Royal Suspect | 0.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Curlin’s Knight | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I See the Stars | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beta | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Lightning Rob | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King of American | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Wicked Charm | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pricing Exercise | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Maria’s Gift | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New York Banker | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Emma and I | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aurannian | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rosies Surprise | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wish for Magic | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | The Great Poohdini | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Theatrical Dancer | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Twisted Tom | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yankee Division | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bourbon Bay | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Microscope | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wudda U Think Now | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Advanced Strategy | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freaky Styley | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vintage Hollywood | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Danebury | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Purple Hearted | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King Moonracer | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reggae Music Man | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Forty Two Ace | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lucky Brody | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cox’s Ledge | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tough Workout | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Grey Quest | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shamrocked | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Vicar’s Legend | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tale of Mist | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Diddley | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Thousand Percent | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Freudian Sip | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Seethisquick | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Irish Roar (IRE) | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | It’s Hot Out | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Frankie Barone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Secret Rules | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | T Loves a Fight | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ragtime Blues | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | More Graytful | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Celtic Chaos | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Money Ride | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Trick | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Happy Farm | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Lord Camden | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Triple Americano | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Apex Predator | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Forest Spirit | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lady’s Boy | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hereissio | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Danegeld | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alite | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Liquor | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Kaz | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Talespin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dutchmen Forever | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Second Fortune | 50.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.