Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 13, 2021

February 13, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dark Money 0.80 2.4 4-1
2 2 Sicilia Mike 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Playthatfunnymusic 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Kosciuszko 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Desert Lights 10.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 San Juan Diego 20.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Afleeting Glance 1.20 1.5 3-1
4 4 She’s an Alpha 1.60 2.1 4-1
1 1 Idaka 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Mizzys Image 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Big Red Girl 15.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Central Capital 15.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Sophie Fatale 30.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Royal Suspect 0.80 1.7 3-1
8A 8 Curlin’s Knight 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 I See the Stars 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Beta 6.00 3.1 6-1
4A 4 Lightning Rob 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 King of American 10.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Super Wicked Charm 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Pricing Exercise 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Maria’s Gift 2.00 2.4 5-1
8 7 New York Banker 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Emma and I 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Aurannian 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Rosies Surprise 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Wish for Magic 15.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 The Great Poohdini 30.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Theatrical Dancer 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Twisted Tom 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Yankee Division 3.50 2.8 5-1
8 7 Bourbon Bay 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Microscope 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Wudda U Think Now 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Advanced Strategy 8.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Freaky Styley 15.00 6.6 12-1
9 8 Vintage Hollywood 15.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Danebury 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Purple Hearted 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 King Moonracer 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Reggae Music Man 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 3 Forty Two Ace 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 6 Lucky Brody 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Cox’s Ledge 15.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Tough Workout 2.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Grey Quest 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Shamrocked 2.50 3.1 6-1
10 9 Vicar’s Legend 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Tale of Mist 5.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Diddley 6.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Thousand Percent 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Freudian Sip 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Seethisquick 10.00 6.4 12-1
6 5 Irish Roar (IRE) 15.00 8.5 16-1
9 8 It’s Hot Out 15.00 8.9 17-1
4 4 Frankie Barone 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Mi Tres Por Ciento (CHI) 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Secret Rules 3.00 3.4 6-1
2 1 T Loves a Fight 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Ragtime Blues 8.00 5.1 10-1
9 8 More Graytful 8.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Celtic Chaos 10.00 7.2 14-1
3 2 Money Ride 12.00 7.4 14-1
8 7 Wicked Trick 10.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Happy Farm 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Lord Camden 3.50 1.9 4-1
11 9 Triple Americano 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Apex Predator 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 4 Forest Spirit 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 7 Lady’s Boy 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Hereissio 20.00 3.9 7-1
10 8 Danegeld 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Alite 20.00 5.6 11-1
12 10 Liquor 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Royal Kaz 4.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Talespin 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dutchmen Forever 12.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Second Fortune 50.00 10.9 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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