February 5, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mariposa d’Oro | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Two More Barbo | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brightnmorningstar | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Here Comes Linda | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Girl | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Soft N Lovely | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Linda Got Lucky | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Heart Dominus | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Reluctant Warrior | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oh My Aching Arch | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Britts a Closer | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | A Little Risky | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Love That Warrior | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Loveu and Proudofu | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Special Bingo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Les Paul | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | D’wild Baroness | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancin All Alone | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lexi Em | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Playful Justice | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lauralee Cocodree | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Custom for Carlita | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Linz | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mighty Pegasus | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tiz Susan Ann | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | No Obligation | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wherever He Is | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Poirier | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Air Force Angel | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Beniah | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Big Easy Empire | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesummer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Afwan | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dixie Street | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Commander Scott | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Makati Phil | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shackle the Gold | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Half a Bite | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | G Don’t Know | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Callinginthenight | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pillage Da Village | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Saranya | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Suite Madam Blue | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arm Candy | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Earth Strike (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Xtrema | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Montpelier | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Joqular | 8.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Princess d’Oro | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Killer Dress | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Double Blessed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Chad’s Autumn King | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Who Took the Money | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Candy Shopper | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Thunk | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Antietam Road | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rare Strain | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Win Won Dobbs | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gros Rouge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | More Good Times | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fate Factor | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Alba’s Star | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Peter’s Kitten | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Go for Mo | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Titan’s Treasure | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Empress Eleanor | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Stop War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Offspring | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Audrey’s Time | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Declarationwarrior | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lucky Find | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | I Hear You | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Fireside Kitten | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mad Tabby | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dad’s Star Cat | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Ridge Moon | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Lady | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Innervoice | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Baby Maybe | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brest Fortress | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cast Your Crown | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.