Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, February 5, 2021

February 5, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Mariposa d’Oro 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Two More Barbo 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Brightnmorningstar 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Here Comes Linda 10.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Surprise Girl 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Soft N Lovely 3.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Linda Got Lucky 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 My Heart Dominus 20.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Reluctant Warrior 2.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Oh My Aching Arch 4.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Britts a Closer 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 A Little Risky 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Love That Warrior 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Loveu and Proudofu 8.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Special Bingo 12.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Les Paul 12.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 D’wild Baroness 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Dancin All Alone 4.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Lexi Em 8.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Playful Justice 8.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Lauralee Cocodree 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Custom for Carlita 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Lucky Linz 6.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Mighty Pegasus 20.00 7 13-1
9 9 Tiz Susan Ann 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 No Obligation 3.00 1.6 3-1
3 2 Wherever He Is 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 6 Poirier 3.50 4.6 9-1
6 5 Air Force Angel 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 4 Beniah 6.00 5.4 10-1
4 3 Big Easy Empire 6.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Awesummer 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Afwan 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Dixie Street 2.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Commander Scott 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Makati Phil 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Shackle the Gold 6.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Half a Bite 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 G Don’t Know 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Callinginthenight 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Pillage Da Village 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Saranya 3.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Suite Madam Blue 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Arm Candy 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Earth Strike (IRE) 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Xtrema 4.50 6 11-1
6 5 Montpelier 8.00 6.1 11-1
8 7 Joqular 8.00 7.1 14-1
10 9 Princess d’Oro 12.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Killer Dress 8.00 8 15-1
5 5 Double Blessed 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Chad’s Autumn King 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Who Took the Money 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 1 Candy Shopper 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 2 Thunk 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Antietam Road 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 4 Rare Strain 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Win Won Dobbs 15.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Gros Rouge 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 7 More Good Times 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Fate Factor 5.00 4.2 8-1
11 8 Elle M’a Souri (FR) 3.50 4.5 8-1
4A 4 Alba’s Star 8.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Peter’s Kitten 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Go for Mo 12.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Titan’s Treasure 12.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Empress Eleanor 5.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Stop War 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Offspring 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Audrey’s Time 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Declarationwarrior 5.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lucky Find 12.00 SCRATCH
15A 15 I Hear You 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Fireside Kitten 15.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mad Tabby 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Dad’s Star Cat 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Blue Ridge Moon 4.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Diamond Lady 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Innervoice 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Baby Maybe 8.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Brest Fortress 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Cast Your Crown 20.00 5.3 10-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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