Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 4, 2021

February 4, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Glitter Time 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 4 G’s a Looker 3.50 2.9 6-1
2 1 Grace’s Gal 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 G’s Mine 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 2 Ma Cher Amio 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Wild Charlie 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Laurel’s Cricket 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Medieval Lady 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bad Boy 2.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Lookin High 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Hamazing Wisdom 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Jackfruit 8.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Papaws Boy 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Oso Negro 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Golden V C 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Verrazanointhesky 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Somekindawicked 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 My Pepper Ann 4.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 See What’s What 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 C’Estbon C’Estbon 4.50 4 7-1
7 7 G’s Deadline 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Lil Ashley B. 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Kehron’s Creed 12.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Toodaloo to You 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 War Bandit 12.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 S Man 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Man On the Moon 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Smokey Harbor 4.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 Ames Mister 3.50 3.4 7-1
3 3 Mr. Walsh 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Not a Nyki 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 One Time Gem 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Williams Shine 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Chief Alpha 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Carson’s Princess 2.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Mon Cherie 3.50 2.6 5-1
6 6 Tiz a Queen 6.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Double Dare You 10.00 4 8-1
4 4 Empressive Tap 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Time for a Song 5.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 J Z’s First 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Smackfire 15.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Business Lady 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 My Little Anita 20.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Cane Creek Road 3.00 1.9 4-1
6 5 Tour the World 5.00 3.1 6-1
10 9 Soul Coaxing 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Perfect One 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Shoulda Had It 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 6 Clearly Mad 6.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Harrison’s Rose 20.00 7 13-1
8 7 Ramirin 20.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Oxbow Wind 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Go Speed Racer Go 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mount Athos 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 Copa 3.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Prime Time Player 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Molto Vivace 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Find New Roads 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Donzi 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Whiskey Plank 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 3 Jungle Cat 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 1 Transient (GB) 5.00 4 8-1
9 5 Postnup 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 4 Waywardness 6.00 5.8 11-1
4 2 Kattegat 12.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Suki 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Solar Reflection 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Spare Cash 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bella Conchita 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Dottie 6.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Empress Catherine 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Soul Song 3.00 2 4-1
1 1 Louisianalightning 2.50 3.3 6-1
9 5 Saintsgotrobbed 4.00 3.9 7-1
10 6 Guitar Slim 6.00 4.5 9-1
8 4 Alma Derby 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 3 Tensas Toddy 20.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Mister Intuition 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Blazing Fire 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lenape Drive 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Commander Scott 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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