Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, February 4, 2021

February 4, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Not Phar Now 1.00 2 4-1
7 6 Black Irish 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Wicked Karma 30.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Simbasalltrouble 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Liquor 20.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Wisecrack 50.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Me ‘n Sap 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Mills 1.40 1.4 3-1
5A 4 Hardcore Folklore 1.20 1.9 4-1
2 2 Classy Papa 8.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Dynamax Prime 4.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Kampai 50.00 5.1 10-1
4A 4 Playwright 1.20 SCRATCH
6 6 This Cat Can Fly 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Magnetique 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Chaysenbryn 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Halo City 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Cousin Basil 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 New York Rock Star 4.50 3 6-1
4 4 Wicked Amber 10.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Social Group 3.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 First Line 3.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Amistad 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Judge Alexander 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Open Lengths 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Super Wicked Charm 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 True Palace 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 First Dawn 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dreams Untold 1.60 1.5 3-1
3 3 Mad Munnys 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Tatweej 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Sunny Ridge 3.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Rock On Luke 6.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Montauk Daddy 1.60 1.8 3-1
1 1 Jake Rocks 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Somebody 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Much Trouble 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Knockout Punch 10.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 New Frontier 12.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Financialstability 10.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Instinctive Rhythm 1.80 2.4 4-1
1 1 Jemography 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Took Charge 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Inscom 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Foolish Ghost 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Morning Breez 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Rejected Again 8.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Luther 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Street Culture 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Full Moon Fever 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Brew Pub 3.50 2.4 4-1
9 9 Bingo John 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 4 Blurt 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 My Brother Neil 8.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Rumdum Byda Sea 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Interstate 30.00 6.1 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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