February 4, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Not Phar Now | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Black Irish | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Karma | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Simbasalltrouble | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Liquor | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wisecrack | 50.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Me ‘n Sap | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Mills | 1.40 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Hardcore Folklore | 1.20 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Papa | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamax Prime | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kampai | 50.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Playwright | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | This Cat Can Fly | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Magnetique | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chaysenbryn | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Halo City | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cousin Basil | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New York Rock Star | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Amber | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Social Group | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | First Line | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Amistad | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Judge Alexander | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Open Lengths | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Super Wicked Charm | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | True Palace | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Dawn | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dreams Untold | 1.60 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mad Munnys | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tatweej | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sunny Ridge | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rock On Luke | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Montauk Daddy | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jake Rocks | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Somebody | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Much Trouble | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Knockout Punch | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | New Frontier | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Financialstability | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Instinctive Rhythm | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jemography | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Took Charge | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Inscom | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Foolish Ghost | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Morning Breez | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rejected Again | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Luther | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Street Culture | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Full Moon Fever | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brew Pub | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bingo John | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blurt | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Brother Neil | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rumdum Byda Sea | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Interstate | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.