January 31, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nepotism | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Al’s Prince | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Inspiration Point | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Reds | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Run Smitty Run | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Iron Pearls | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cathy Naz | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fair Lassie | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fair Regis | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dublinornothin | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sister Patricia | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kinky Sox | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Micromillion | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Suz | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Deal | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Lune Lake | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cover Photo | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Whyisshesoolucky | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Prime Lime | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Evan’s Nice Now | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ouch Ouch Ouch | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Democratic Values | 0.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Rising | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My First Grammy | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kith | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Esor | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | A Gray for Carolyn | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Pleasure Luck | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Make Mischief | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shanes Pretty Lady | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Out First | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4B | 4 | Iova | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 6B | 6 | Mendham | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Caramocha | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Chasing Cara | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Just Read It | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Cause to Dream | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heels Together | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Chargina | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Despeight All Odds | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Strong Point | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Delicious | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lulinda’s Heart | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ruvies in Time | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Baby Boss | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Point | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Jimmy | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Elegant Zip | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pendolino | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Alana | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jimmy Winkfield S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Scotch Rock’s | 1.40 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pico d’Oro | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Return the Ring | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Hello Hot Rod | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Magnificent Chrome | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Weyburn | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Pollard’s Day | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scotty | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bedazzling | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Eight Weeks Long | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War of Thrones | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Up for Adventure | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Ninety Nine George | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Litterbox | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Loulovestheriver | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Huge Checkpoint | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.