January 30, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Teetotaler | 0.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epona’s Dream | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Know It All Red | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Duckphat | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Elegant Laoban | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gallina | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Quintarelli | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Kid Chocolate | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | King of American | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Fidget | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I See the Stars | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fotis | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Curlin’s Knight | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Lightning Rob | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kingfish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Magnetron | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mandatory Payout | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Titan’s Will | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fried Rice King | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mine the Coin | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Economic Policy | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stan the Man | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pete’s Play Call | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Share the Ride | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Power | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drafted | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Gracefully Wild | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sassy Melissa | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shaker Shack | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Esotica | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Glenmore | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rainbow Gal | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Madame Rose | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Nebo | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dutchess of N Y | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Storm Advisory | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Manifest Destiny | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brush Country | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gio d’Oro | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tale of Mist | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hawaiian Noises | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Professor Snape | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Pro | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roaming Union | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Limonite | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Lincoln | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kumar | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Family Biz | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Sicarii | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Honorable Service | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Scilly Cay | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golani Brigade | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | South Africa | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blindwillie McTell | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Danebury | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seven Lilies | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Five Tool Player | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Mystic Night | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Clemenza | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mandatory | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Continuation | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Johnnypump | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ajhar | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Beckenbauer | 50.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.