Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 30, 2021

January 30, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Teetotaler 0.80 1.3 2-1
2 2 Epona’s Dream 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Know It All Red 4.50 2.6 5-1
4 3 Duckphat 12.00 4 8-1
6 5 Elegant Laoban 12.00 4.5 8-1
3 2 Gallina 15.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Quintarelli 2.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Kid Chocolate 3.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 King of American 4.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Mr. Fidget 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 I See the Stars 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Fotis 8.00 6 11-1
3A 3 Curlin’s Knight 8.00 7.1 13-1
6A 6 Lightning Rob 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Kingfish 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Magnetron 2.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Mandatory Payout 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Titan’s Will 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Fried Rice King 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Mine the Coin 4.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Economic Policy 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Toboggan S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Stan the Man 2.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Pete’s Play Call 1.80 2 4-1
3 3 Share the Ride 1.60 2.2 4-1
5 5 American Power 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Drafted 12.00 3.6 7-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Gracefully Wild 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Sassy Melissa 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 7 Shaker Shack 5.00 1.7 3-1
6 5 Esotica 5.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 The Glenmore 6.00 2.4 5-1
5 4 Rainbow Gal 10.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Madame Rose 50.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Nebo 4.50 3.4 7-1
4 3 Dutchess of N Y 30.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Storm Advisory 3.00 2.1 4-1
8 7 Manifest Destiny 3.50 2.4 5-1
5 4 Brush Country 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Gio d’Oro 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Tale of Mist 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Hawaiian Noises 15.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Skyler’s Scramjet 3.50 SCRATCH
6 5 Professor Snape 30.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Malibu Pro 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Roaming Union 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Limonite 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 American Lincoln 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Kumar 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Family Biz 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 The Sicarii 15.00 5 9-1
8 8 Honorable Service 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Scilly Cay 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Golani Brigade 2.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 South Africa 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Bronx Bomber 6.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Blindwillie McTell 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Danebury 10.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Seven Lilies 15.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Five Tool Player 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Mystic Night 4.00 1.2 2-1
6 5 Clemenza 2.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mandatory 3.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Continuation 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Johnnypump 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Ajhar 10.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Beckenbauer 50.00 5.8 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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