Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 28, 2021

January 28, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Kuhlke 4.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Gifted Talent 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Darling Joanna 3.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Explosively Hot 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Steal the Stars 3.50 5.3 10-1
8 8 Custom Gulch 15.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Lucky Harborage 12.00 7.7 15-1
12 11 The Missing Piece 12.00 8.1 15-1
5 5 Lively Lea 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Party With Kassidy 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Diamond Lady 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Bad Gal Riri 12.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Go My Juliet 30.00 11.1 21-1
10 9 Nottodayfellas 30.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cajun Up 2.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Amazing American 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Lions Hot Mess 4.50 4.6 9-1
3 3 First Metal Count 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Coach O’Shea 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Herewecometogetyou 8.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Too Much Bourbon 10.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Diamond Palace 10.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Love Enough 4.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 San Destin 1.80 1.8 3-1
1 1 Token 2.00 2.4 4-1
6 5 Portofina 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Chambers Creek 12.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Torch of Honor 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 11 Deanos Cape 5.00 2.8 5-1
12 10 Jack the Ripper (FR) 8.00 3 6-1
2 1 Matheson 5.00 4.2 8-1
11 9 Day Trip 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Junior Bug 6.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Curlington 4.50 5.6 11-1
9 7 Conative 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 6 Dom Caetano (ARG) 15.00 7.4 14-1
4 3 Max Pandowdy 12.00 7.5 14-1
7 5 He’s a Lucky Man 15.00 8.3 16-1
10 8 Briar Jumper 12.00 8.6 16-1
1 10 Da Gold Room 5.00 SCRATCH
5 4 One Hitter 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Railman 3.50 SCRATCH
14 15 Hamazing Wisdom 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Two Mikes N Doc G 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Son of a Saint 3.00 2.2 4-1
9 9 Thetrashmanscoming 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Dictator 2.50 3 6-1
5 5 Call the Colonel 8.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Bye Bye Shanghai 8.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Familiar Rhythm 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Point Hope 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Dickinson’s Image 30.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Mosta Flyin 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Millennium Force 4.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Tipsy Gal 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Lea’s Princess 4.50 3.5 7-1
9 7 Moon of Love (IRE) 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Listen Up 8.00 4 8-1
8 6 Sugar and Sass 8.00 4.9 9-1
11 9 Cobra Casablanca 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Blues Mary 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Oooh Barracuda 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Yes to Mischief 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Emmport 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lady of Luxury 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sikum 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Macho Mark 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Redoux 3.50 2.3 4-1
1 1 New Hampshire 8.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Run Far 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Hiccup 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Aniclude 6.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Phraseologism 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Xietelehuas 20.00 8 15-1
5 5 Mr. Brutus 20.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Have a Notion 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Its a Wrap 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Power End 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Tell Your Daddy 5.00 4.2 8-1
6 5 Sir Alfred James 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 7 Star of Kodiak 4.50 5.1 10-1
8 9 Duncastle 6.00 5.7 11-1
1A 8 Embolden 4.50 6.1 12-1
9 10 Nucky 12.00 8.2 15-1
7 6 Wile E Peyote 12.00 9.1 17-1
10 11 Hold Me Black 4.50 SCRATCH
11 12 Bertie’s Galaxy 6.00 SCRATCH
12 13 Omega Moon 6.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Broth 12.00 10.4 20-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 8 Shakin Silver 1.80 2.1 4-1
1A 7 Jade’s Classy One 10.00 4 8-1
4 4 Nosy Banker 2.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Runnin Brave 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Fluffpoint 8.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Comerunninboys 10.00 6 11-1
3 2 Midnight Nightmare 10.00 6 11-1
1 3 He’s Taylor Made 10.00 6.4 12-1
10 10 The Three Ks 12.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Minister’s Medal 20.00 9 17-1
8 9 Abacus On Tap 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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