January 28, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kuhlke | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gifted Talent | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Darling Joanna | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Explosively Hot | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Steal the Stars | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Custom Gulch | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Harborage | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | The Missing Piece | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lively Lea | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Party With Kassidy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Diamond Lady | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bad Gal Riri | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Go My Juliet | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Nottodayfellas | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cajun Up | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing American | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lions Hot Mess | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | First Metal Count | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Coach O’Shea | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Herewecometogetyou | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Too Much Bourbon | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Diamond Palace | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Love Enough | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | San Destin | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Token | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Portofina | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chambers Creek | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Torch of Honor | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 11 | Deanos Cape | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Jack the Ripper (FR) | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Matheson | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Day Trip | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Junior Bug | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Curlington | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Conative | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dom Caetano (ARG) | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Max Pandowdy | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | He’s a Lucky Man | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Briar Jumper | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 10 | Da Gold Room | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | One Hitter | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Railman | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 15 | Hamazing Wisdom | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Son of a Saint | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thetrashmanscoming | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dictator | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Call the Colonel | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Shanghai | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Familiar Rhythm | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Point Hope | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dickinson’s Image | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mosta Flyin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Millennium Force | 4.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tipsy Gal | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lea’s Princess | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Moon of Love (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Listen Up | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Sugar and Sass | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Cobra Casablanca | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blues Mary | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oooh Barracuda | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Yes to Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Emmport | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lady of Luxury | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sikum | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Macho Mark | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Redoux | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | New Hampshire | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Run Far | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hiccup | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aniclude | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Phraseologism | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Xietelehuas | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Brutus | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Have a Notion | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Its a Wrap | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Power End | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tell Your Daddy | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Alfred James | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 7 | Star of Kodiak | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Duncastle | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Embolden | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Nucky | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wile E Peyote | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Hold Me Black | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 12 | Bertie’s Galaxy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 13 | Omega Moon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Broth | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 8 | Shakin Silver | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1A | 7 | Jade’s Classy One | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nosy Banker | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Runnin Brave | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fluffpoint | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Comerunninboys | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Midnight Nightmare | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | He’s Taylor Made | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Three Ks | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Minister’s Medal | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Abacus On Tap | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.