Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, January 28, 2021

January 28, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Warfront Fighter 2.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Scorpion Dynasty 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Confectioner 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Joycee Haz Pizzaz 1.60 2.6 5-1
3 3 Maclean’s Legacy 12.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Height 15.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Across the Channel 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Make Or Break 2.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Behind the Couch 3.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Halo City 1.40 2.2 4-1
6 6 Mama Kin 5.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Princess Pinky 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Jasminesque 10.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Skippingandajumpin 2.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Beatthatflew 3.50 1.9 4-1
9A 8 Writer’s Regret 4.00 3 6-1
10 9 Out of Tune 4.50 3.1 6-1
8B 7 Sophos 6.00 4 8-1
4B 3 In the Zone 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Scotto 10.00 6 11-1
5 4 Tapitena 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Vice King 12.00 8.5 16-1
3A 3 Litterbox 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Pinky Dude 2.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Cause of Action 4.00 1.8 3-1
3A 3 Alongcametheprince 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Queen’s Mason 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Beach Front 4.50 2.8 5-1
1A 1 Larceny 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Take It to Scale 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Tapizearance 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Big’s Gray Day 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Moonshiningbright 4.00 1.3 3-1
7 7 Bird Ruler 4.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Crowded Trade 2.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Ranger Fox 5.00 2 4-1
3A 3 Hyperactive Chris 3.50 2.6 5-1
4A 4 Rudy Rod 3.50 2.6 5-1
8 8 Lemon Drop Road 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Frosted Indian 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dr. Devera’s Way 5.00 2 4-1
6A 5 Brilliant Brooks 0.60 2.3 4-1
5 4 Money in the Bank 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 Bend in the River 10.00 3.5 7-1
4 3 Latin Love Bug 15.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Light the Posse 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Scoreswhenhewants 30.00 5.7 11-1
2A 2 Montauk Daddy 0.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Blu Grotto 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Ask Neal 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Sinashack 2.50 2.4 4-1
5 5 Sono Grato 4.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Nerves of Steel 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Rocco Strong 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 We Ready 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Mischievous Juan 30.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 I Love Jaxson 3.00 1.7 3-1
4 2 Hooray for Harvey 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 1 Scarf It Down 5.00 3.1 6-1
5 3 Hammerin Aamer 5.00 4.5 9-1
7 5 Mac’s Revolution 12.00 6.9 13-1
6A 4 Zitman 10.00 7.5 14-1
10A 8 Flatexcel 10.00 8.1 15-1
9 7 Chief Know It All 12.00 9.3 17-1
1 1 Gio d’Oro 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Other Things Equal 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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