Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Monday, January 18, 2021

January 18, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Outlaw X. 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Bluewater Cat 5.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 D Two 3.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Maintainance Matt 3.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Trivista 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Sparkys Surprise 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Ice Peak 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Magi 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Field Day 2.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Verrazanointhesky 1.80 2.8 5-1
2 2 Lookin for Loki 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 5 Heavy Duty 12.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Edge to Edge 12.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Warlock Doc 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Heza Way Maker 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Park Ridge Benny 3.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Caymans Cobra 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Zypto 4.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Flash Attack 5.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Nice Work 6.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Go for Moonshine 10.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Familiar Rhythm 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Mediamaker 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Blue Wings 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Riv 15.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wentru 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Ames Mister 5.00 3 6-1
8 8 Citadel 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Emerald Forest 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Half Cocked 8.00 4 7-1
10 10 Mr. Walsh 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Smokey Harbor 12.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Phraseologism 10.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 One Time Gem 12.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Oxwood 10.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Ramirin 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Microcap 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Saintsation 4.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Lemon Chill 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Black Kat Taps 4.00 3 6-1
3 3 Aimara 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Princesa Blanca 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Silver Take Charge 10.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Actress On Board 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Tiz Susan Ann 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mila’s Gold 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Irish Hustle 2.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Marywood 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Money Well Spent 8.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Lebkuchen 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Lone Star Diva 10.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Air Guitar Star 15.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Special Connection 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Lil Ashley B. 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Kick N Kiss 20.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Minute Waltz 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Divine Comedy 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Zoom Up 4.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Princess Theorem 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Social Dilemma 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Maystart 12.00 5 9-1
7 7 Rock Star Parking 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Sariah Sariah 12.00 7.2 14-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 11 Vincaia 4.50 2 4-1
2 1 Famous Attraction 4.50 2 4-1
6 5 Anoush 3.50 2.8 5-1
13 12 Rumpus 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 2 Naughty Rendezvous 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 10 Laura’s Angle 10.00 6 11-1
11 9 Symptom 12.00 6.2 12-1
4 3 Alimony Blues 12.00 6.6 12-1
10 8 Inajiffy 15.00 8 15-1
5 4 My Tommy Lee 15.00 8.6 16-1
7 6 Solar Reflection 20.00 9.3 18-1
9 7 Steph’s Spirit 20.00 9.8 18-1
1A 15 Sparkle of Hope 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Fastest Spin 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sapphire 6.00 SCRATCH
15 16 Perfect Limit 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Roux Ga Roux 2.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Faith’s Raceday 3.00 2.4 4-1
2 2 Candy Shopper 4.50 3 6-1
5 5 Goodrockinalvin 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Thunk 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Win Won Dobbs 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Rare Strain 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 In a Bind 12.00 5 10-1
9 9 Mr. E Edwards 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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