Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 17, 2021

January 17, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Lil’ Sister Lou 5.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 D’wild Baroness 3.50 3 6-1
3 3 Brooklyn Baby 5.00 3 6-1
6 5 Goodnight Gracie 3.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Blondie Lox Babe 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Lagniappe 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 6 Flat Scat 20.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 That’s a Song 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Strollin the Bayou 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Zabava 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Apple Dapple 2.50 3.7 7-1
3 3 N. D. Free 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Cubs Win 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 North of Eden 12.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Hero of Gold 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Limage 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 On Your Mark 3.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Chicken Hawk 3.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Smart Call 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Gallant Plunger 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Uncapped 6.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Intimidation 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Money Cometh 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Carson’s Princess 3.00 2 4-1
4 4 Unwanted Input 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Hohohoho 6.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Masked Mandate 4.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Kattegat 8.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 Flatteringapplause 10.00 3.4 7-1
2 2 Danger Zone 10.00 4 7-1
9 9 Danza Lauren 10.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tizindy Queen 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Whiskey Double 2.50 1.8 3-1
6 5 O Besos 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 2 Tate 3.50 3.7 7-1
1A 6 Outlier 4.50 4.6 9-1
2 1 O Dogg 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Crime Spree 6.00 5.6 11-1
1 3 Assumption 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Comedian 4.50 2.9 6-1
2 2 New Eagle 4.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Deviant 2.50 3.5 7-1
9 8 Copper Fiddle 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Mom Said Yes 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 4 Holy Spirit 12.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 Bucky 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 9 Mayor Cobb 12.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Good Intent 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Data Load 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Fredonian 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Enforceable 2.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Plus Que Parfait 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Spa City 1.80 2.4 5-1
1 1 Dune of Pilat (FR) 12.00 3.7 7-1
6 5 Leader of Men 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Zanesville 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ms Satch Mo 4.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Taptime 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Perks d’Oro 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Taylor’s Wish 5.00 3 6-1
8 8 Breonna 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Peace Nicker 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Miss Unionist 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Fancy Gi Gi 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Point of Infinity 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Speak to Me 1.60 1.8 3-1
6 6 Steal the Stars 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Spellbinding 4.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 American Rebel 6.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Our Mardi Gras 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Birdcatmouse 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Gerrie Lou 20.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Halo’s Song 20.00 5.9 11-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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