Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 17, 2021

January 17, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Too Boss 1.20 1.2 2-1
2 2 Khafre 1.60 1.2 2-1
1 1 Repo Rocks 4.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 We Ready 12.00 4 8-1
3 3 Dazzle Time 15.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Highland Beach 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Mia Bea Star 2.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Behind the Couch 1.60 2.3 4-1
6 6 Quasar 5.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 She So Naughty 6.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 High School Crush 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ancient Brown 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Adhwaa 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Respect for All 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Bourbonic 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Make It in Ny 3.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 Prospect Mountain 2.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Ghost Stalker 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 De Only Solution 12.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lottie’s Mizzion 2.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Choose Happiness 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Nicky Scissors 1.80 2.4 5-1
2 2 Mebs Web 8.00 3.7 7-1
8 8 Queendom 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Not a Problem 10.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Gringotts 12.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Gagliano 20.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 I’m Fine 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 2 Bankers Daughter 1.20 2.3 4-1
5 4 Courageous Girl 4.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Ifihadachance 5.00 2.9 6-1
6 5 Imprsstheprofessor 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Sky Kitten 15.00 8 15-1
1A 1 Amos 8.00 SCRATCH
2A 1 Cheatham Hill 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Chambo 1.80 1.7 3-1
9A 9 American Gentleman 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 5 Jailbreaker 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Yerosilverbiz 4.50 2 4-1
1 1 Up Seventyfour 3.50 2.1 4-1
7 7 Black ‘n Tan 8.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Centavo 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Kentucky Knight 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Magnificent Chrome 20.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Moonachie 1.80 1.6 3-1
5 5 Leap to Glory 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Morgantown 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Bustin Timberlake 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Double Shot 6.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Him She Kisses 12.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Fleet Warrior 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Jack Bo 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Ladies H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Thankful 2.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Smooth With a Kick 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Lucky Move 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Ujjayi 6.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Miss Marissa 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 4 Am Impazible 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Bridlewood Cat 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Holmdel Park 2.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Hayezhee 1.80 2.2 4-1
7 7 Trapped N My Mind 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Foley Square 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 First Dawn 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Mani Pedi 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Happycrest 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Shannon’s Girl 15.00 6.5 12-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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