January 17, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Too Boss | 1.20 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khafre | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Repo Rocks | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | We Ready | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dazzle Time | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Highland Beach | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mia Bea Star | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Behind the Couch | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quasar | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She So Naughty | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | High School Crush | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ancient Brown | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Adhwaa | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Respect for All | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbonic | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Make It in Ny | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prospect Mountain | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Stalker | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | De Only Solution | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lottie’s Mizzion | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Choose Happiness | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nicky Scissors | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mebs Web | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Queendom | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Not a Problem | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gringotts | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gagliano | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | I’m Fine | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bankers Daughter | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Courageous Girl | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ifihadachance | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Imprsstheprofessor | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sky Kitten | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Amos | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 1 | Cheatham Hill | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Chambo | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 9A | 9 | American Gentleman | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jailbreaker | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Yerosilverbiz | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Up Seventyfour | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Black ‘n Tan | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Centavo | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kentucky Knight | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Magnificent Chrome | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Moonachie | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Leap to Glory | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morgantown | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bustin Timberlake | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Double Shot | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Him She Kisses | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fleet Warrior | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Jack Bo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Ladies H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Thankful | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Smooth With a Kick | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Move | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ujjayi | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Miss Marissa | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Am Impazible | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bridlewood Cat | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Holmdel Park | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hayezhee | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trapped N My Mind | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Foley Square | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | First Dawn | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mani Pedi | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Happycrest | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shannon’s Girl | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.