Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 16, 2021

January 16, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Day’s Humor 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 4 Qualifying Offer 2.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Equant 6.00 2 4-1
3 2 Voice of Spring 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 3 Beautiful Karen 2.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Vienna Code 30.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Misspotofgold 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mongolian Humor 3.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Violent Trick 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Sister Alexa 10.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Persian Queen 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Viradia 5.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Whyisshesoolucky 15.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Dragoness 30.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Take Charge Tina 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Charlie Five O 1.40 1.3 3-1
4 3 Conformist 2.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Excellorator 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 Bowing Snowman 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Meetmeincali 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Brooklyn Law 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Taino 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Full Moon Fever 0.80 1.5 3-1
2 2 Lobsta 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 My Brother Neil 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Devious Mo 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Judge Bern 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Rumdum Byda Sea 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Humpday 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Arrowheart 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 McErin 2.00 2.2 4-1
6 5 Square Shooter 4.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Clench 3.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Vineyard Sound 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Topper T 10.00 5.5 10-1
9 8 Skyler’s Scramjet 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Air Attack 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 4 Honorable Service 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Wegotoldyougotsold 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Mrs. S 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 4 Bay Jewel 6.00 1.7 3-1
2 1 Forever Changed 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 5 Sweet Kisses 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Dovey Lovey 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 2 Jump for Joy 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Rude Awaking 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 She’s a Black Belt 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Brew Pub 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 5 It’s Gravy 1.60 2.9 6-1
2 2 Scherzando 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 B C Glory Days 6.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Doublepour 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Big Little Risk 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Ruse 12.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Oliver’s Fortune 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Franklin Square S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Laobanonaprayer 1.20 1.7 3-1
1 1 Vacay 1.60 2.6 5-1
3 3 A Life That’s Good 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Rossa Veloce 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Secret Love 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Caramocha 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Maiden Beauty 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Love and Love 4.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Critical Value 5.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 South of the Shore 3.50 2.8 5-1
7 7 I Dare U 10.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Say Moi 6.00 3 6-1
3 3 Toned Up 8.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Fiftyshays Ofgreen 10.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Brass Ring 20.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Wicked Amber 30.00 8.2 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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