January 16, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Day’s Humor | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Qualifying Offer | 2.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Equant | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Voice of Spring | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Beautiful Karen | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vienna Code | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misspotofgold | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mongolian Humor | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Trick | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sister Alexa | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Persian Queen | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Viradia | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Whyisshesoolucky | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dragoness | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Take Charge Tina | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Charlie Five O | 1.40 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Conformist | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Excellorator | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bowing Snowman | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meetmeincali | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brooklyn Law | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Taino | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Full Moon Fever | 0.80 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lobsta | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Brother Neil | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Devious Mo | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Judge Bern | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rumdum Byda Sea | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Humpday | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Arrowheart | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | McErin | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Square Shooter | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Clench | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vineyard Sound | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Topper T | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Skyler’s Scramjet | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Air Attack | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Honorable Service | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wegotoldyougotsold | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Mrs. S | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bay Jewel | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Forever Changed | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sweet Kisses | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dovey Lovey | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Jump for Joy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rude Awaking | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | She’s a Black Belt | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Brew Pub | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Gravy | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Scherzando | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | B C Glory Days | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doublepour | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Little Risk | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ruse | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oliver’s Fortune | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Franklin Square S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Laobanonaprayer | 1.20 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vacay | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A Life That’s Good | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rossa Veloce | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Secret Love | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Caramocha | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Maiden Beauty | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love and Love | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Critical Value | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | South of the Shore | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | I Dare U | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Say Moi | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Toned Up | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fiftyshays Ofgreen | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Brass Ring | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wicked Amber | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.