Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 3, 2021

January 3, 2021 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Let It B 1.80 1.7 3-1
1 1 In the Arch 2.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Poets Princess 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Passageway 3.50 3.2 6-1
4 4 Rattlesnake River 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Papaws Boy 8.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Barleewon 4.00 2.7 5-1
8 7 Kinetic Swagger 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Forloveofcountry 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Have a Plan 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Healing 4.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Bring Me a Check 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Benelux 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Musical Man 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 D’wild Baroness 2.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Lil’ Sister Lou 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Lucky Linz 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 That’s a Song 8.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Lagniappe 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Flat Scat 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 7 Brooklyn Baby 10.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Blondie Lox Babe 12.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Film Study 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Indy Tourist 2.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Laker Mamba 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Royal Prince 1.40 2.4 4-1
2 2 Invincibility 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Excess Magic 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 No Exaggeration 15.00 3.4 6-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 10 Half Mine 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Mane Priority 4.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Tuffology 3.50 4.3 8-1
6 5 Maw Maw’s Sophia 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Beautifulandwild 6.00 4.8 9-1
10 9 Custom Cut 8.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Madison’s Place 20.00 7.5 14-1
9 8 Iona Guitar 20.00 8.8 17-1
7 6 Stang It 20.00 8.8 17-1
4 4 Cajun Music 20.00 8.9 17-1
5 5 Blue Ridge Heat 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Yes to Mischief 3.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Lea’s Princess 4.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Listen Up 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Heaven Escape 8.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Delicious Pursuit 4.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Sugar and Sass 3.50 4 7-1
1 1 Stop War 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Dulcimer Dame 20.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Play Unified 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Charming Lady 4.50 2 4-1
2 1 Lady of Luxury 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Specially 6.00 3 6-1
4 3 Magic Dance 6.00 3 6-1
3 2 Zanadu 6.00 3.2 6-1
8 7 Sassy Seneca 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 8 Lady Shaman 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Bye Bye Bertie 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 She Can’t Sing 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Mi Lia 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Distractor Factor 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Lebkuchen 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Exacta 6.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Elle Corredora 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Sincerity 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Memory Magic 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 My Pepper Ann 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Vita 12.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Galaxy Thirtysix 12.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Crimson Feline 20.00 8.8 17-1
12 12 Lil Ashley B. 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Midnight Spirit 6.00 4.5 8-1
8 7 Southern Light 5.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Mucho Macho 10.00 4.8 9-1
12 9 C F Johnathan 4.50 5.2 10-1
5 5 Shackle the Gold 12.00 5.9 11-1
9 8 Degrasse 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Mr. Old Hat 8.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 War Rogue 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Antietam Road 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Theos Flew 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Adieu Galaxy 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Tin Delay 2.50 SCRATCH
15 15 Western Star 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Flashburn 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Heza Fortune 30.00 10.2 19-1
2 2 Brother David 30.00 10.3 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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