Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, January 3, 2021

January 3, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Amity Island 1.60 1.6 3-1
3 2 Rosey’s Peach 3.50 3 6-1
6 5 Maria’s Gift 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 6 Employees Only 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 3 Theatrical Dancer 8.00 4 8-1
5 4 Bellamy’spartygirl 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 7 Quashana 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Barefoot Dancer 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Queen’s Mason 2.50 1.5 3-1
1A 1 Macho Jack 2.00 2.1 4-1
8 7 Dr. Devera’s Way 4.00 3 6-1
2 2 Oh My Papa 5.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Beach Front 6.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Justice of War 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Ventus 20.00 6.3 12-1
7A 7 Dan the Man Can 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Bourbon Rising 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 3 Johnnypump 1.60 2.3 4-1
8 7 Ajhar 5.00 2.7 5-1
6 5 Aunt Kat 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 2 Mandatory 3.50 2.9 5-1
7 6 Halo City 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 True Palace 20.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Zuzudini 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Advanced Strategy 2.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Cold Hard Cash 0.80 2.3 4-1
1 1 Microscope 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Too Early 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Open Lengths 12.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Forever Wicked 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Run for Boston 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sirenic 1.80 1.4 3-1
4 4 Mama Kin 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Miss Mi Mi 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 8 Princess Corey 4.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 She’s a Black Belt 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 City Temper 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Ancient Brown 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Adhwaa 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Family Biz 2.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Dark Storm 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Super Dude 3.50 2.6 5-1
8 7 Hammerin Aamer 8.00 4 8-1
5 5 American Rule 12.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 American Lincoln 10.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Castagno 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Air Attack 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Jerry the Nipper 2.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Six Percent 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Bourbon Bay 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Twisted Tom 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Pategory One 8.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Opt 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Control Group 12.00 5.1 10-1
11 10 Seven Lilies 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Freaky Styley 20.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Veloce 30.00 7.5 14-1
10A 10 Microsecond 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Verdad S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 4 Sharp Starr 0.80 2.3 4-1
5 3 Mrs. Orb 4.00 3.9 7-1
3 1 Espresso Shot 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 2 Prairie Fire 8.00 5 9-1
1 1 Timely Tradition 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sadie Lady 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Red Priestess 30.00 SCRATCH
10 9 Investment Grade 2.00 1.1 2-1
3A 3 The Great Poohdini 6.00 2.1 4-1
2A 2 Captivating Cara 6.00 2.1 4-1
9 8 Avid Sucinori 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Stella Mars 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Vive La Liberty 8.00 3.1 6-1
8 7 Willow Grove 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Wish for Magic 20.00 4.3 8-1
11 10 Blessed Mothermary 30.00 7 13-1
5 5 Winter Warrior 12.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Flirtacious Kiss 50.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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