Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, January 2, 2021

January 2, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Democratic Values 1.20 1.3 3-1
2 2 Scorpion Dynasty 4.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Kith 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Knockout Punch 8.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Joycee Haz Pizzaz 2.00 3 6-1
3 3 Ouch Ouch Ouch 20.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Camouflaged Kisser 30.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tuff Bird 5.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Wings of Fire 8.00 3 6-1
7 7 Princess in Charge 3.50 3.4 6-1
9 9 Charlotte Webley 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Left Leaning Lucy 3.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Elite Speed 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Mebs Web 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 Gagliano 15.00 7.7 15-1
8 8 Heartstrings 20.00 8 15-1
5 5 Mani Pedi 20.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Money Ride 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Instinctive Rhythm 1.80 1.8 3-1
1 1 Took Charge 3.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Rejected Again 4.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Morning Breez 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 The Sicarii 15.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Ringgood 1.60 1.9 4-1
10 9 Judge Alexander 5.00 2 4-1
6A 5 Starship Empire 6.00 2 4-1
3A 3 Theitalianamerican 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 6 Z’finale 2.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Ratchet 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mariner Qui 30.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Second Fortune 50.00 7 13-1
9 8 Whats in It for Me 50.00 8.2 16-1
4 4 Lorenzen 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Outrageous Bet 4.50 1.6 3-1
6A 6 Blugrascat’s Smile 4.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Ekhtibaar 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Hardcore Folklore 4.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Lucky Ramsey 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Scarf It Down 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Creative Style 2.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Hawaiian Noises 30.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Gaultier (FR) 50.00 7.7 15-1
9 9 Professor Snape 50.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Breakfastatbonnies 3.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 Hip Number One 3.50 1.9 4-1
1 1 Jill’s a Hot Mess 2.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 No Payne 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Gracefully Wild 10.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Nebo 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Know It All Red 15.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Handle the Truth 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Empires First Lady 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Perceived 1.20 1.8 3-1
1 1 First Line 4.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Jerusalem Gates 2.50 3.3 6-1
8 8 Sixto 8.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Colormepazzi 12.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Kingfish 20.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Diannesimpazible 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Fotis 30.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Shadow Caster 50.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Gravesend S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Stan the Man 1.80 1.7 3-1
4 4 My Boy Tate 2.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Pete’s Play Call 2.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Drafted 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Happy Farm 4.00 3.5 7-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5A 5 Freedom Force 3.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Tiergan 5.00 2.8 5-1
10A 10 Unbridled John 3.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Mental Model 6.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Doubly Blessed 4.50 4 8-1
8 8 Bronxville 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Beachside 6.00 5.6 11-1
14 14 Implied Volatility 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 I See the Stars 15.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Super Wicked Charm 15.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 My Amanjena 30.00 8.3 16-1
6 6 I Saw It All 30.00 8.9 17-1
15 15 Pricing Exercise 50.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Royal Suspect 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Glenn Likes Gin 30.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Ridolfo 50.00 11.9 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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