Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, January 1, 2021

January 1, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Take It Off 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Magnificent Mags 1.80 1.9 4-1
1 1 Cashmere Queen 4.50 2.1 4-1
6A 6 Jordy Can Tap 6.00 2.2 4-1
2A 2 After the Wire 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Don’t Cry Anna 8.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Gram’s Gal 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Madame Rose 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Funny Bones Flag 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Ghostghostghost 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Dancing Kiki 3.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Bonus Baby 4.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Undetectable 8.00 3 6-1
2 2 Karla’s Dream 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Tiny Magoo 6.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Mia Calia 30.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7A 6 Hurricane Dancer 1.00 1 2-1
1A 1 Studio B 1.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 We Should Talk 4.00 3.7 7-1
9 8 Winning Drive 5.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Coach Villa 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 San Juan Diego 12.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Tale of Mist 15.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Hooray for Harvey 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Win With Pride 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Summer Bourbon 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Miss Moon Pie 2.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Afleeting Glance 3.50 2.9 5-1
6A 6 Misty Taste 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Central Capital 6.00 4.7 9-1
4A 4 Cemetery V I P 5.00 4.8 9-1
10 10 Celestial Dream 10.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Oak Creek Canyon 10.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Queen Daveigh 12.00 8 15-1
7 7 Menzamenz 15.00 8.2 16-1
5 5 Sander’s Empire 12.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Roma Carpe 15.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Road to Meath 3.50 2.1 4-1
8 8 Our Country 2.50 2.3 4-1
9A 9 Titan’s Will 6.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Advance Notice 3.00 3 6-1
2 2 Beachwalker 4.00 3.1 6-1
3A 3 Lost in Rome 6.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Tri Saint Lorenzo 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Blood Moon 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Dangerous Edge 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Montauk Daddy 2.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Coolboy 5.00 2.9 6-1
6 6 Spitball 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 4 Victory Built 8.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Daring Disguise 8.00 4.5 9-1
13 13 Four of Swords 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Double Shot 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Posse Can Disco 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Joint and Several 12.00 7 13-1
11 11 Ink Splotz 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Breithorn 20.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Beta 30.00 10.2 19-1
5 5 Smite 30.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aasr 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Villainous 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Tenderfoot 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Twelth Man 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Edge of Fire 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Obsessed 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Vintage Hollywood 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Skipin On Orchard 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jerome S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Swill 1.40 1.7 3-1
4 4 Eagle Orb 1.80 1.8 3-1
5 5 Original 3.50 2 4-1
3 3 Hold the Salsa 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Capo Kane 12.00 4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Devilish Mood 4.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Paynt the Edges 8.00 3 6-1
10 10 Step to the Bank 6.00 3.4 6-1
15 15 Brickyard 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Sal My Pal 12.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Moonshine Maker 4.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Simbasalltrouble 6.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Dutchmen Forever 8.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Lady’s Boy 15.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Talespin 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Have a Heart 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Fivestar Bandit 30.00 8.9 17-1
3 3 Apex Predator 30.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Mighty Wind 50.00 11.3 21-1
16 16 Imperio D 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Alite 50.00 13.2 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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