January 1, 2021 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Take It Off | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Magnificent Mags | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cashmere Queen | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Jordy Can Tap | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2A | 2 | After the Wire | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Don’t Cry Anna | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gram’s Gal | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Madame Rose | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Funny Bones Flag | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ghostghostghost | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Kiki | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bonus Baby | 4.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Undetectable | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Karla’s Dream | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiny Magoo | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mia Calia | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Hurricane Dancer | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Studio B | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | We Should Talk | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Winning Drive | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coach Villa | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | San Juan Diego | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of Mist | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hooray for Harvey | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Win With Pride | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Summer Bourbon | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Miss Moon Pie | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Afleeting Glance | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Misty Taste | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Central Capital | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Cemetery V I P | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Celestial Dream | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Oak Creek Canyon | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen Daveigh | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Menzamenz | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sander’s Empire | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roma Carpe | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Road to Meath | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Our Country | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9A | 9 | Titan’s Will | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Advance Notice | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beachwalker | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Lost in Rome | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tri Saint Lorenzo | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blood Moon | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dangerous Edge | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Montauk Daddy | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Coolboy | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spitball | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Victory Built | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Daring Disguise | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Four of Swords | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Double Shot | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Posse Can Disco | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Joint and Several | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ink Splotz | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Breithorn | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beta | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smite | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Aasr | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Villainous | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tenderfoot | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Twelth Man | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Edge of Fire | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Obsessed | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vintage Hollywood | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Skipin On Orchard | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jerome S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Swill | 1.40 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Eagle Orb | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Original | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hold the Salsa | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Capo Kane | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Devilish Mood | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Paynt the Edges | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Step to the Bank | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Brickyard | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sal My Pal | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moonshine Maker | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Simbasalltrouble | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Dutchmen Forever | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady’s Boy | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Talespin | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Have a Heart | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fivestar Bandit | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Apex Predator | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mighty Wind | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Imperio D | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Alite | 50.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.