Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 18, 2020

December 18, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shakin Silver 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 G Don’t Know 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Ima Sunny Song 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Abacus On Tap 6.00 2.9 6-1
3 3 Go Ortego Go 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Grey Sloan 15.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Bestbangforyabuck 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Mista Valentine 20.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Railman 4.50 3.3 6-1
9 9 Curlington 4.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Sandbagger Al 10.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Have a Plan 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Day Trip 3.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Jurisdiction 10.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Sournois 10.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Ekaterinoslav 12.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Good Clean Fun 12.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Hashtag Speed 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Matt’s Honey 2.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 N. D. Free 5.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Yes I’m Evil 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Our Slick Chick 6.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Angelina’s Heaven 4.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Matapan 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Elevententeetime 12.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Glance 12.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Desha 3.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Quinn Murphy 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Ruby Sioux 8.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Bonita Springs 12.00 4.1 8-1
13 13 Fetching Fury 12.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Miss Brookside 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Malibu Moira 4.50 4.5 8-1
10 10 All Fact 15.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 As Fast as You Can 10.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Havinfunyet 6.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Sundereya 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Little Snip 20.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Sweet Carolina 30.00 9.1 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 1 Loving Lucky 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 2 Rightandjust 3.50 1.9 4-1
6 6 Cody’s Legacy 8.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Smokey Harbor 8.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Directional 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Poirier 8.00 4 7-1
4 4 Fieldstone 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Harrison’s Rose 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Olympic Champion 20.00 7.2 14-1
1A 8 Birthday Party 3.50 SCRATCH
10 11 Action Seeker 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 6 Im a Cowboy Too 1.40 2.9 5-1
6 5 Payday Too 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Make Me Smile 5.00 3.6 7-1
10 9 Imindycatbirdseat 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Stuck in Vegas 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Trevilion 1.40 4.1 8-1
4 3 Greeley Went West 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Mr. Four Sevens 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 8 Whatdatpay Ray 30.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Pursuit of a Dream 10.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Luckenbacher 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wicked Bisou 5.00 1.8 3-1
1A 7 Divine Comedy 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Carbis Bay 3.50 2 4-1
4 4 Empress Catherine 2.50 2 4-1
8 9 Total Malice 10.00 2.3 4-1
7 8 Take Charge Lorin 3.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Prominently 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Taptime 15.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Brest Fortress 30.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sun Path 1.40 1.8 3-1
3 2 Montpelier 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 4 Rock Star Parking 4.50 2.2 4-1
5 3 Izeonpoint 12.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Little Samurai 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Gladys 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Social Dilemma 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Daddymademedoit 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Peter’s Kitten 6.00 4 8-1
15 12 Tipsy Gal 10.00 4 8-1
14 11 Fate Factor 10.00 4.1 8-1
11 9 More Good Times 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 4 Broadway Lady 12.00 5 9-1
9 7 Veruca 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 5 Flashing Red 10.00 5.8 11-1
12 10 Zero to Sixty 6.00 6.1 12-1
10 8 Audrey’s Time 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Go for Mo 20.00 7.6 14-1
8 6 Lemon Chill 30.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 Silver Take Charge 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Elle M’a Souri (FR) 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 I Hear You 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Shackleford County 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Enforceable 2.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Chess Chief 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Spa City 3.50 3.4 6-1
5 5 Plus Que Parfait 5.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Cowboy Diplomacy 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Big Beautiful Wall 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Harvey Wallbanger 8.00 4.7 9-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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