December 17, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 7 | War Rules | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | War Rogue | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Degrasse | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 10 | Prince Carlos | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Southern Light | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Midnight Spirit | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | C F Johnathan | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Brother David | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lions Hot Mess | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Starvictory | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Youcanbetonme | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 12 | Purgerator | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | News Break | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1A | 9 | Beachcombing | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Ka Oi | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arion Magic (FR) | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Adeeb | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 2 | Fiat Lux | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 1 | Dreaming of Carats | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pharaoh’s Kitten | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 3 | Bayandbunny | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Skycraft | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Go for Moonshine | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Son of a Saint | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Woman With a Book | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Call the Colonel | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Marais | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rosslare Harbour | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Trapper Peak | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Kattegat | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mindy’s Way | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Time for Glory | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ms Satch Mo | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Faded Memories | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Flatteringapplause | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Baby Maybe | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Taylor’s Wish | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Wave of Goodness | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mon Cherie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | J Z’s First | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Artie | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Custom Cut | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dreaming of Curlin | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tuffology | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Cajun Music | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Our Lil Rascal | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stang It | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Madison’s Place | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sandy’s Wager | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Smoothoutthetrack | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Iona Guitar | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Red Hot Babe | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chewy Chewy Good | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Missy | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mariposa d’Oro | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Oooh Barracuda | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Caroline’s Story | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pink Posse | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | G Kate | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shiningdownondalis | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Heart Dominus | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Allieverneedisyou (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Goulding | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O Seraphina | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamondcoat | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quikfast N Ahurry | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Aimara | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sweet Blindness | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Susan Ann | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Briefcase Bully | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Attorney Tim | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Half Ours to Keep | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Toma Todo | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Extraordinary | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lethal Move | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alfons Walde (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parade Field | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Warrior’s Map | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Botswana Taps | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Kick | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Benelux | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Cool Bobby | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Big Money Machine | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Drewpower | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 12 | Lil Adeau | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | G’s a Looker | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mollys Flyin High | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bodie On Pointe | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Our Starlet | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Looking Hot | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ibegtodiffer | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Slewalyze | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ma Cher Amio | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Audacious Girl | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flat Out Crypto | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Rebel Girl | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gone Midnight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.