Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 17, 2020

December 17, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Teetotaler 2.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Home for Christmas 4.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Chasing Cara 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Exfiltration 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Quiet Type 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Stormi Cat Lady 10.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Pink Gin 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Gallina 20.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Flirtacious Kiss 50.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Fire Sword 2.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Sam and Sy 2.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Civil War 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Stylish Rags 10.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 De Only Solution 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Prospect Mountain 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 Ghost Stalker 12.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Let’s Workout 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Funny Bones Flag 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Ghostghostghost 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Dancing Kiki 3.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Bonus Baby 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Undetectable 8.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Tiny Magoo 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Afleeting Glance 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Rip by You 30.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Mill Stone Creek 30.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Classy Papa 3.50 2.1 4-1
3B 3 Blood Moon 8.00 2.4 4-1
12A 12 Magnetron 3.50 2.5 5-1
13 13 Mandatory Payout 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Titan’s Will 6.00 2.9 6-1
7B 7 Ventus 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Vitesse 1.80 3.8 7-1
9 9 Mr. Shortandsimple 12.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Mine the Coin 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Latin Love Bug 15.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Scoreswhenhewants 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Alongcametheprince 30.00 7.1 13-1
10 10 True Blue Giant 50.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8A 8 Limonite 1.40 1 2-1
2 2 Someday Jones 3.00 2.4 5-1
1A 1 Backsideofthemoon 1.40 2.5 5-1
6 6 Per Capita 2.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Roaming Union 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Kumar 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Zoomer 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Malthael 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dial One 2.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Earned Success 2.50 2.6 5-1
9 9 Hooray for Harvey 10.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Justin Front 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Ethan Hunt 12.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Tale of Mist 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Desert Lights 10.00 5.3 10-1
8 8 Dark Roast 15.00 5.5 10-1
2 2 Summer Bourbon 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Coltandmississippi 20.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Kampai 30.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Luna’s in Charge 2.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Raven Rocks 4.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Notorious Flirt 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Jemography 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Farragut 12.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Bulwark 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Leap to Glory 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Bustin Timberlake 15.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Possetizzly 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Roll With My Posse 30.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 A Maize Zing Rip 50.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rift Valley 4.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 King Angelo 8.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Neuro 4.50 2.9 5-1
4 4 Micro Me 15.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Not Phar Now 5.00 3.5 7-1
13 13 Jade’s Dream 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Ernie Banker 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Black Irish 6.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 American Piper 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Me ‘n Sap 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Whichwaytomalibu 20.00 5.8 11-1
12 12 Wicked Karma 30.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Being Me 50.00 9.8 18-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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