December 11, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bastet | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wishes and Dreams | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Barista Vixen | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Boom Boom Girl | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zerenia | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mama Kin | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rapido Gatta | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cherokee Song | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Vodka Lemonade | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Martinez | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Danzigwiththestars | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sonic Speed | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr Hot Chacha | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Swinging Sticks | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beatthatflew | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bardolino | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | R Boy Little Eddie | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On Our Way Boyz | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Data Deal | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Production Credit | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Mambonick | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Chaysenbryn | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Customerexperience | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Savedbythebelle | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Bennys Tribute | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Make Or Break | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Behind the Couch | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fun Finder | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Cover Photo | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fair Regis | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Rude Awaking | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Miss Mi Mi | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Movie Score | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dirty Bird | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Athwaaq | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hardstonemelody | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bustin to Please | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mendham | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Caumsett | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Acushla | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Photofinish Jeanne | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Willow Grove | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Emma and I | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Theatrical Dancer | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stella Mars | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Bertinga | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epona’s Dream | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Black Licorice | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chasing Cara | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Stormi Cat Lady | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Gallina | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Dutchess of N Y | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Saluki | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mihos | 2.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1A | 1 | Lil Commissioner | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Home Base | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7A | 7 | American Power | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tale of Silence | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dr Blarney | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Celtic Chaos | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Hayabusa One (FR) | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ghost Giant | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | So High (GB) | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Attentive | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Old Boy | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Nutzforboltz | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hit It Once More | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vip Nation | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rapt | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Creative Plan | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Soulmate | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jack the Cat | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Kid Chocolate | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | River Knight | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Chief Know It All | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Heavy Roller | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Foolish Ghost | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | More Graytful | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Money Ride | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Ahead of Plan | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charlie McCoy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Bustin Shout | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | The Sicarii | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fed Funds | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Morning Breez | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Edge of Fire | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dubai Bobby | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Informative | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Speightful Kitten | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Violentiam | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tremayne | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Regal Honor | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Azogar | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nebo | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Captivating Cara | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Empires First Lady | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Priestess | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Delaware Destiny | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Adirondack Queen | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Madame Rose | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | She’s a Majestic | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Little Ms Scarlet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Iova | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | The Great Poohdini | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.