Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 11, 2020

December 11, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bastet 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Wishes and Dreams 3.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Barista Vixen 2.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Boom Boom Girl 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Zerenia 5.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Mama Kin 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Rapido Gatta 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Cherokee Song 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Vodka Lemonade 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 7 Martinez 3.00 3.1 6-1
11 10 Danzigwiththestars 5.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Sonic Speed 4.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mr Hot Chacha 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Swinging Sticks 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Beatthatflew 15.00 5.5 10-1
9 8 Bardolino 15.00 6.5 12-1
6 5 R Boy Little Eddie 20.00 8 15-1
1 1 On Our Way Boyz 30.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Data Deal 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Production Credit 10.00 SCRATCH
12 11 Mambonick 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Chaysenbryn 2.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Customerexperience 2.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Savedbythebelle 6.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Big Bennys Tribute 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Make Or Break 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Behind the Couch 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Fun Finder 12.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 2 Cover Photo 3.50 2.2 4-1
7 6 Fair Regis 1.20 2.3 4-1
8 7 Rude Awaking 4.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Miss Mi Mi 12.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Movie Score 15.00 3.8 7-1
4 3 Dirty Bird 15.00 3.9 7-1
5 4 Athwaaq 30.00 6.5 12-1
2 1 Hardstonemelody 30.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Bustin to Please 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mendham 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 7 Caumsett 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Acushla 6.00 4 8-1
10 9 Photofinish Jeanne 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Willow Grove 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Emma and I 12.00 6.2 12-1
12 11 Theatrical Dancer 15.00 7.3 14-1
11 10 Stella Mars 8.00 7.6 14-1
6A 6 Bertinga 12.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Epona’s Dream 20.00 9.6 18-1
8 8 Black Licorice 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chasing Cara 1.60 SCRATCH
15 15 Stormi Cat Lady 4.00 SCRATCH
16A 16 Gallina 12.00 SCRATCH
13 12 Dutchess of N Y 30.00 11.3 21-1
4 4 Saluki 30.00 11.7 22-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mihos 2.00 1.2 2-1
1A 1 Lil Commissioner 1.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 Home Base 3.50 2.1 4-1
7A 7 American Power 1.80 2.1 4-1
4 4 Tale of Silence 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Dr Blarney 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Celtic Chaos 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Hayabusa One (FR) 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Ghost Giant 4.50 3.8 7-1
9 9 So High (GB) 3.50 4.2 8-1
8 8 Attentive 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Good Old Boy 6.00 5 9-1
12 12 Nutzforboltz 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Hit It Once More 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Vip Nation 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Rapt 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Creative Plan 20.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Soulmate 30.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Jack the Cat 15.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Kid Chocolate 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 River Knight 50.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Chief Know It All 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Heavy Roller 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Foolish Ghost 4.50 3.1 6-1
12 9 More Graytful 3.50 3.3 6-1
9 7 Money Ride 6.00 3.4 6-1
11 8 Ahead of Plan 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Charlie McCoy 8.00 4.4 8-1
13 10 Bustin Shout 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 6 The Sicarii 20.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Fed Funds 12.00 6.1 11-1
6 4 Morning Breez 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Edge of Fire 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Dubai Bobby 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Informative 20.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Speightful Kitten 50.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Violentiam 1.60 1.7 3-1
11 9 Tremayne 8.00 3.1 6-1
12 10 Regal Honor 4.50 3.4 6-1
5 4 Azogar 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 6 Nebo 12.00 4.5 9-1
2A 2 Captivating Cara 15.00 5.1 10-1
13 11 Empires First Lady 10.00 5.6 11-1
6 5 Red Priestess 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 7 Delaware Destiny 15.00 6 11-1
10 8 Adirondack Queen 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 3 Madame Rose 50.00 9.9 19-1
3 3 She’s a Majestic 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Little Ms Scarlet 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Iova 8.00 SCRATCH
15A 15 The Great Poohdini 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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