Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 10, 2020

December 10, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 The Devils Back 3.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Data Load 3.50 3 6-1
2 2 Maintainance Matt 3.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Goforthewinecourse 4.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Pastor Van 4.50 4.8 9-1
1 1 Jail House 4.50 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Forloveofcountry 3.50 3.2 6-1
7 7 Comedian 4.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 Healing 4.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Steadytillready 4.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Marshall Law (IRE) 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Impeachableoffense 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Barleewon 6.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Gemo Rain 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Cantrell Hill 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 El Hombre 3.50 2 4-1
6 5 Guitar King 4.50 2.7 5-1
3 2 Tune My Guitar 6.00 4.2 8-1
7 6 Striking Star 8.00 5 10-1
4 3 Taking Notes 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Neon Sky 8.00 5.2 10-1
8 7 M V P Mookie 8.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Standing Man 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Justinthenickotime 3.00 3 6-1
4 3 East Lex 4.00 3.5 7-1
1A 8 Maroon Maniac 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 2 Day Trip 2.50 4.1 8-1
8 7 Simply 5.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Curlington 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 1 Ekaterinoslav 12.00 6.6 12-1
7 6 Max Pandowdy 12.00 7 13-1
2 1 He’s a Lucky Man 12.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Muscadine 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Contact Tracing 3.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 O Dogg 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Tlaloc 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Citadel 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Boornazian 5.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Poirier 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Hooked a Goodwin 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Haleys Sailor 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ceant 2.50 2.4 5-1
5 5 Sail On Ellen 3.50 2.5 5-1
7 7 Empress Eleanor 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Chick Be Quick 6.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Take Charge Patti 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Cloud Ten 6.00 4 7-1
3 3 Bee House 8.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Play Unified 1.80 3.2 6-1
11 8 New Year’s Party 8.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Kick N Kiss 12.00 5 9-1
8 7 Tenpins Tempo 6.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Sarah’s Passion 12.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Mia O Maya 12.00 5.6 11-1
7 6 Ezee Enough 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Strong Beauty 12.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Bellamy Cay 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dr Liz 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Boston Cadillac 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Lynchburg 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Channel Won 3.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 O’L Red 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Richard’s Boy 5.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Eden Grey’s Kitten 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Its a Wrap 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Mister K 6.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Spectrolite 8.00 7 13-1
10 9 A Song for Arch 20.00 8.9 17-1
7 7 Loopallu 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Hotfoot 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hilton Magic 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Over Funded 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Chublicious 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Truth Teller 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 6 No Quarter 1.40 2.4 4-1
5 4 Thunk 4.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Rare Strain 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Shackle the Gold 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Herewecometogetyou 8.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Rivers Rising 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Adieu Galaxy 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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