Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, December 6, 2020

December 6, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lexi Em 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 3 Film Study 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 Flat Scat 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 Lil’ Sister Lou 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 One Fast Song 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Whodatwhodat 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Have No Fear 2.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 La Femme Royale 3.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Glance 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 All Fact 8.00 4.5 8-1
6 5 Little Snip 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 4 Altered Dream 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Tashiara 3.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Margie’s Money 3.50 SCRATCH
9 9 New Year’s Party 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Juanandora 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Supersport Sally 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 All in Bronson 6.00 2.4 4-1
3 3 Cool Deal 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Tears for Paula 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 War Bandit 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Meg and Clair 20.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Risky Reward 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 6 Goin’ Good 4.00 2 4-1
6 5 Suite Madam Blue 4.00 2 4-1
5 4 Dont Float the Ice 6.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 New Boss 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Flash Town 8.00 4.5 9-1
8 7 Little Samurai 15.00 6 11-1
4 4 Saturday Night 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Archrival 3.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Caymans Cobra 2.50 2.5 5-1
5 5 Sparkys Surprise 4.50 3 6-1
3 3 Magi 4.50 3.7 7-1
7 7 Talkothtown 10.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Ice Crush 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Distinct Quality 10.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Freedom Factor 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 King of Candy 6.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Half Ours to Keep 10.00 5.6 11-1
8 7 War Film 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 Executive Bonus 12.00 6.1 12-1
12 10 River Evangelist 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 Zanesville 10.00 7.1 13-1
13 11 Antarctic 12.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Foldover 10.00 8.5 16-1
9 8 Meseta Diablo 20.00 9.1 17-1
14 12 Independent Worker 20.00 9.7 18-1
4 4 Erasmo’s Dream 20.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 Overzealous 3.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Citali 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Killeen 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 5 Taken Back 8.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Zenucci 4.00 2.4 5-1
7 6 Reckless Ransom 2.50 2.7 5-1
4 3 Inspector Eddie 2.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Why Joey Why 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Impressive Student 20.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Cajun Chaos 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Summer Palace 1.80 3.1 6-1
7 6 Forward Curve 3.00 3.3 6-1
8 7 Hawk of War 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 1 Divulgence 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 3 Joyful Surprise 8.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Defied 15.00 6 11-1
6 5 Cool Runnings 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 2 Mo Time At All 6.00 SCRATCH
1A 6 Capt. Maestri 6.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Kentucky Summer 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Candy Candy Candy 4.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Mane Priority 5.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Lucky Linz 3.50 3 6-1
8 7 Our Lil Rascal 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Stang It 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Lil Peastoch 4.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Redding Well 20.00 5.6 10-1
2 2 Sandy’s Wager 20.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Golden Expresso 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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