December 6, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bellagio | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bourbonic | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blu Grotto | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sono Grato | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speechin N Teachin | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lend America | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magnificent Chrome | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Princess in Charge | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queendom | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | First Dawn | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stretchthestory | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Choose Happiness | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pendolino | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Foley Square | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | I Dare U | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mad for Fame | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Scarf It Down | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Playwright | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hardcore Folklore | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Deep Sea | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hooray for Harvey | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Real Dan | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hero’s Hope | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Hero | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Seaside Retreat | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dovima | 1.20 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Kat | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Alemia | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Berenice | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Halo City | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dance for the Gold | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Girl | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Six Percent | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chestertown | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Not That Brady | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Klickitat | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pategory One | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Opt | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Yankee Division | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gray Destiny | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Athena Dancer | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Laobanonaprayer | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Flower’s Fortune | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ms Wicked | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jill’s a Hot Mess | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shanes Pretty Lady | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | U Should B Dancing | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pop the Bubbly | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tangerine Dream | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Pazzion | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vive La Liberty | 50.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Garland Of Roses S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Saguaro Row | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Ninja | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honor Way | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hey Mamaluke | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Honey I’m Good | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pacific Gale | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bridlewood Cat | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Uno | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dreamer’s Disease | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hold the Salsa | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Market Alert | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | The King Cheek | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New York One | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Gravy | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Horn of Plenty | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Windy Nations | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jacoba | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prospect Mountain | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jacks American Pie | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Karley O | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Celestial Dream | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Moon Pie | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Kitten’s Romance | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lemoncella | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hot Button | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mia Calia | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Queen Daveigh | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sander’s Empire | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Roma Carpe | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sophie Fatale | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.