December 4, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | T D Dance | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Indy Tourist | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Johny’s Fireball | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spyglass | 4.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dyn O Mite | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Excess Magic | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Extra Mile | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | City Park | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kai Baby Kai | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Britts a Closer | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drilling Report | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Half a Bite | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Venn | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 9 | Dulcimer Dame | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 7 | Diamond and Silks | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Adina | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 8 | All Dressed Up | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 6 | Stang’s Galaxy | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wheres Mom | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speak Briley | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cast Your Crown | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1A | 5 | Brightnmorningstar | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Artie | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maw Maw’s Sophia | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Foursweetnieces | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Catcake | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Zydeco Music | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hey Grace | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Ridge Heat | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sister Chloe | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nine Line Bind | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 4 | Sebs Princess | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Apple Dapple | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Strollin the Bayou | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Marrazano | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | North of Eden | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Herbs Love | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Barbess | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cubs Win | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Chikara | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Da Gold Room | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chasing Anna | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | First Contact | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Sugar Town | 4.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Taino House | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ronnie’s Reasoning | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blackshear | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Speak to Me | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Darling Joanna | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | My Girl Sweet | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Explosively Hot | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Caramel Latte | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghi Daisy | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Magic Coy | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Froideur | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flirtyflirt | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | War Falcon | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Klayton’s Kandy | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Masked Mandate | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Chinatown Nancy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Kuhlke | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Run Girl Run | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Katie’s Karat | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bella’s Choice | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Faded Memories | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Veils and Vows | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Alibi | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 14 | Taylor’s Wish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ms Satch Mo | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Flatteringapplause | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Looking for Bull | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magic Vow | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Confederate Yell | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Social Misfit | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hansen’s Holiday | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Binding | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Two Date | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Big Gig | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tensas Toddy | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.