December 4, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Holmdel Park | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mia Bea Star | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Charlotte Webley | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Left Leaning Lucy | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Haze | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mani Pedi | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lasagna | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trapped N My Mind | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Despeight All Odds | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jamaica Joy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Stuck On Kitten | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Palace Gossip | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | O’Gotten Girl | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gabby Squared | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Singe | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Why She Dew Dat | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | I’m a Hugger | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Dracarys | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lilly Simone | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Striking Speed | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Winters Back | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12B | 6 | Microsecond | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Scanno | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10B | 4 | Bray | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dudley Square | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | First Line | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Singapore Trader | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 3 | Turbo Drive | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Will Sing for Wine | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Gauguin (GER) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 5 | Il Primo Sole (GB) | 15.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jake Rocks | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sneakiness | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz Kaz Now | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stanhope | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shadow Caster | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Therisastormbrewin | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mr Phil | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hersh | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Amistad | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ink Splotz | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Diamond in the Sun | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Maria’s Gift | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Bustinmygroove | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Laura’s Bellamy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Coffee Bar | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | A Life That’s Good | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | La Urbana | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Nythingzpazible | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Gracefully Wild | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | New York Banker | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Avid Sucinori | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Cosmic Kitten | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hip Number One | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Know It All Red | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Handle the Truth | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Siesta Kew | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Smoke | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Swashbuckle | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hillbilly Logic | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Texas Basin | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | It’s a Gamble | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for Trouble | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kid Cash | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Town of Gold | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Spectatorless | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | 9 | Chocolate Bar | 1.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Much Trouble | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reckless Spirit | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | More Like It | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Life On Top | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hurricane Hill | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mr. Vincent | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Atta Kid | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Centerfoldprospect | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bad Guy | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | False Alarm | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Rejected Again | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Wegotoldyougotsold | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Currency Chrome | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Batterbatterswing | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Kosciuszko | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Manifest Destiny | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Eye Luv Lulu | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | El Potro | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | San Juan Diego | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Corporate Raider | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vineyard Sound | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Tale of Mist | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 11 | Coltandmississippi | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Breeze Burner | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Professor Snape | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Another Shot | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gods Will | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mindfreak | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Easy | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prince Orb | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bohemian Ruby | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Doublepour | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Make It in Ny | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dreampoint | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tom’s Choice | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hold the Irish | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.