Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Friday, December 4, 2020

December 4, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Holmdel Park 3.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Mia Bea Star 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Charlotte Webley 3.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Left Leaning Lucy 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Gray Haze 5.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Mani Pedi 10.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Lasagna 15.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Trapped N My Mind 15.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Despeight All Odds 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jamaica Joy 15.00 SCRATCH
10 8 Stuck On Kitten 5.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Palace Gossip 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 2 O’Gotten Girl 3.00 2.9 5-1
4 3 Gabby Squared 5.00 3 6-1
5 4 Singe 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Why She Dew Dat 8.00 5.4 10-1
11 9 I’m a Hugger 12.00 7.8 15-1
8 7 Miss Dracarys 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 1 Lilly Simone 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Striking Speed 5.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Winters Back 2.00 2.2 4-1
12B 6 Microsecond 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Scanno 1.80 3 6-1
10B 4 Bray 2.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 Dudley Square 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 First Line 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Singapore Trader 4.50 SCRATCH
7 3 Turbo Drive 12.00 8.3 16-1
3A 3 Will Sing for Wine 5.00 SCRATCH
6A 6 Gauguin (GER) 5.00 SCRATCH
11 5 Il Primo Sole (GB) 15.00 10.9 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Jake Rocks 3.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Sneakiness 3.50 2.7 5-1
8 8 Tiz Kaz Now 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Stanhope 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Shadow Caster 15.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Therisastormbrewin 10.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Mr Phil 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Hersh 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Amistad 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Ink Splotz 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Diamond in the Sun 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Maria’s Gift 15.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Bustinmygroove 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Laura’s Bellamy 15.00 SCRATCH
11 9 Coffee Bar 4.00 2.3 4-1
6 4 A Life That’s Good 4.50 3.7 7-1
14 14 La Urbana 3.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Nythingzpazible 15.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Gracefully Wild 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 3 New York Banker 10.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Avid Sucinori 12.00 7.5 14-1
9 7 Cosmic Kitten 15.00 8.3 16-1
3 2 Hip Number One 15.00 8.6 16-1
10 8 Know It All Red 15.00 9.8 18-1
7 5 Handle the Truth 20.00 12.4 23-1
16 16 Siesta Kew 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Phantom Smoke 3.00 1.6 3-1
7 6 Swashbuckle 4.00 2.2 4-1
5 4 Hillbilly Logic 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Texas Basin 3.50 SCRATCH
4 3 It’s a Gamble 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Lookin for Trouble 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Kid Cash 6.00 3.6 7-1
6 5 Town of Gold 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Spectatorless 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9A 9 Chocolate Bar 1.00 1.3 2-1
8A 8 Much Trouble 1.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Reckless Spirit 8.00 2.7 5-1
11 11 More Like It 8.00 3.2 6-1
10 10 Life On Top 6.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Hurricane Hill 8.00 3.5 7-1
12 12 Mr. Vincent 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Atta Kid 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Centerfoldprospect 15.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Big Wonder 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Bad Guy 15.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 False Alarm 50.00 9.3 18-1
13A 13 Rejected Again 1.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wegotoldyougotsold 3.50 3.1 6-1
11 9 Currency Chrome 10.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Batterbatterswing 4.50 3.6 7-1
14 12 Kosciuszko 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 4 Manifest Destiny 20.00 4.7 9-1
12 10 Eye Luv Lulu 15.00 5.3 10-1
8 6 El Potro 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 7 San Juan Diego 20.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Corporate Raider 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Vineyard Sound 2.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Tale of Mist 20.00 SCRATCH
13 11 Coltandmississippi 30.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Breeze Burner 30.00 7.7 15-1
10 8 Professor Snape 50.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 9 Another Shot 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Gods Will 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Mindfreak 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Wicked Easy 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Prince Orb 12.00 3.3 6-1
9 8 Bohemian Ruby 4.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Doublepour 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Make It in Ny 12.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Dreampoint 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Tom’s Choice 20.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Hold the Irish 30.00 8.8 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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