November 29, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Maga Country | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lautrec | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz Light the Way | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Florida Flash | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Consider | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Count Your Pennies | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Assumption | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboy Hippie | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bode’s Light | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Optimistic Valor | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cold as Hell | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Western Pharoah | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catch the Sparrow | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Eskenforit | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Zone | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lastchanceatglory | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Carte Blanche | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trashtalkinyankee | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Deal | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strike Appeal | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Witch Doctor | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pradar | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Out Cold | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Half Trick | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | County Court | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dealin’ Stelen | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Twobirdsonestone | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grats Road | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Hyndford | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Roderick | 1.80 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spicy Marg | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Superman Shaq | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | County Final | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Outlier | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lookin for Loki | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sidetown | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Absam | 5.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fastly | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Citizen | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Atoka | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Imperial Conflict | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Scale | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Towing | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | League of Legends | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Another Hero | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Can Imagine | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bluebird Day | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Smart Call | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jurisdiction | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Big Bluff | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Major Attraction | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Veiled Vixen | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Church of Many | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Critic | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Clean Fun | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | My Name Is Phred | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Convention | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Patriarch Artie | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bugle of War | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pregame | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Beep Beep | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Now a Jaguar | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Roman Pharoah | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spheroid | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wellman | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Racarino | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Audacious Antoine | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Babylon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Miss Imperfection | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Alta’s Award | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | High Regard | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Oh So Terrible | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Nomizar | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Goodbye Earl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mizzen Beau | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Twenty Twice | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kadesh | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mulberry Street | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Falkirk | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Distorted Moon | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Claytnthelionheart | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mister Candy Ride | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11A | 11 | Excession | 1.60 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Beaver Hat | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Make Noise | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Extraordinary | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lake Nakuru | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Amalfi Princess | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Fold Em | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Frosted | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Joy of Painting | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Altered Shot | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Euphoric | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ms V Time | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hrasky | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Amusing Antics | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Closet Shopper | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Grace’s Secret | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Hold the Fort | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bell Day | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.