Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 29, 2020

November 29, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Determined Fury 2.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 Growl Tiger 6.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Instinctive Rhythm 1.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 O’Trouble 5.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Clemenza 3.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Knockout Punch 30.00 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Perfect Munnings 3.50 2.5 5-1
10 9 Dancing Buck 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 On Mick’s Day 6.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Mr Hot Chacha 6.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Heymackit’sjack 10.00 4.1 8-1
11 10 Masked Marauder 2.50 4.7 9-1
8 8 Bolgheri 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Loulovestheriver 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Never Evolved 12.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Mr Breadwinner 4.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Data Deal 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Martinez 2.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mambonick 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Purple Hearted 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 What’s My Category 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Takecareyallchickn 30.00 11.2 21-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Compliant 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Glynn County 4.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Bluegrass Parkway 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Bakers Bay 5.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Box N Score 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Obsessed 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Cowtown 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Cibolian 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Dante’s Fire 12.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 The Sound 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Fort Worth 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Adare 1.20 2.7 5-1
2 2 Family Biz 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Vintage Hollywood 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 American Rule 30.00 4 8-1
3 3 Scoreswhenhewants 50.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Caramel Swirl 1.60 1.2 2-1
9 7 Paradise Song 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Precipitate 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Miss Brazil 10.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Soma 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Dealing Justice 12.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Firing Carol 50.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Just Read It 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Shop Girl 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 My Delicious 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Stunning Princess 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Technical Analysis (IRE) 3.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Wow 5.00 2.6 5-1
11 10 Cadencia 6.00 2.7 5-1
10 9 Third Draft 6.00 3.2 6-1
1A 1 Mo Spicy 12.00 6 11-1
8 8 Single Soul (GB) 15.00 8.2 15-1
12 11 Irish Crush (IRE) 15.00 8.4 16-1
6A 6 Cash Refund (GB) 12.00 9 17-1
5 5 Fuchsia 20.00 9 17-1
4 4 Fool Yourself 20.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Autostrada 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Obligatory 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Autumn Days S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Madeleine Must (FR) 4.50 3.6 7-1
3 2 Risky Mischief 5.00 3.6 7-1
9 8 Lead Guitar 2.00 3.7 7-1
10 9 A Great Time 6.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Mentality 8.00 4 7-1
11 10 My Sassy Sarah 10.00 4 8-1
5 4 I’llhandalthecash 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Ode to Joy 15.00 5.8 11-1
6 5 Saratoga Treasure 20.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 Rose Flower (GER) 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Malibu Mischief 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Timely Tradition 1.40 SCRATCH
14 14 Bridlewood Cat 5.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Dendrobia 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Fall Highweight H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Majestic Dunhill 2.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Stan the Man 3.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Share the Ride 1.80 2.7 5-1
2 2 Drafted 10.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Tribecca 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Arch Cat 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Absentee 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Tepin S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lovestruck 1.40 2 4-1
10 7 Island Treasure 6.00 2.6 5-1
11 8 Fifth Risk 10.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Invincible Gal (GB) 2.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Lexinator 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Big Time Lady 20.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Thursday 30.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Hit the Woah 1.60 SCRATCH
8 8 Dollar Mountain 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Malibu Curl 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Frost Me 10.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Bravo Regina 50.00 10.9 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Unprecedented 4.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Montauk Daddy 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Grandmas Favorite 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Propensity 2.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Smite 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Red Mule 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 Daring Disguise 12.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Implied Volatility 15.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Threepointninenine 15.00 7.5 14-1
11 11 Quid 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Disciplanarian 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 False Alarm 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Embeed 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mr. Fidget 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Beta 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 My Amanjena 50.00 12.1 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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