Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 28, 2020

November 28, 2020 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shakin Silver 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Wicked Alex 4.50 4.5 8-1
5 5 Makati Phil 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Ashleys Biscuit 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 G Don’t Know 4.50 5.3 10-1
11 11 Bestbangforyabuck 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Grey Sloan 10.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Mista Valentine 10.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Ima Sunny Song 15.00 8 15-1
9 9 R and R Star 12.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Muletrain 12.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Run Away Son 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fast Verdict 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 4 Palvera 2.00 3.4 6-1
7 6 Moonoverthebayou 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 5 Commander Scott 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 3 Binding Agreement 2.50 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tactical Priority 6.00 5 9-1
3 3 Titanium Pledge 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 4 Mucho Macho Bets 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 3 Take That for Data 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 2 King of Candy 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 1 Shirl’s Ready 6.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Independent Worker 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Vinyl 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Clint Maroon (GB) 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Major Key 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ya Gotta Wanna 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Lil Bad Lil Boujee 5.00 3.4 6-1
12 12 Gilded Apple 3.50 4 8-1
7 7 Crypto Brave 5.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Divided 6.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Custom Gulch 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Galaxy Star 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 A Little Guilty 12.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 My Girl Em 8.00 6.7 13-1
11 11 Greedy Gal X Lee 20.00 8.3 16-1
8 8 Go My Juliet 12.00 8.7 16-1
13 13 Speak Briley 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Haute Cuisine 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Stang’s Galaxy 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Adina 6.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Clocked in Tyme 30.00 11.5 22-1
10 10 St Maria 30.00 12.5 24-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 7 Dreammaster 5.00 3.4 6-1
4 3 Canihaveitlikethat 6.00 4.7 9-1
12 6 Freightrainfreeman 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 5 Tapage 12.00 5.8 11-1
6 4 Data Load 10.00 6.2 12-1
3 2 Mayberry Saloon 20.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Ekaterinoslav 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Curlington 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 One Hitter 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Days of Glory 2.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Dom Caetano (ARG) 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Briar Jumper 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Shar’s Treasure 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Have a Plan 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 9 Big Bella Brown 4.00 4.3 8-1
9 6 Free Indeed 12.00 5.1 10-1
4 2 Double Barrel Man 3.50 5.2 10-1
3 1 Bootsie’s Galaxy 10.00 5.4 10-1
6 4 My Wise Cat 4.50 5.7 11-1
5 3 Cabo’s Rumor 12.00 6 11-1
8 5 My Friend Flavin 12.00 6.3 12-1
13 10 Prizeless 6.00 6.8 13-1
11 8 Keys to the Palace 15.00 7.6 14-1
10 7 Adrenaline 30.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Zelig 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Gracida 10.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Rose’s Galaxy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Uncapped 4.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Singapore Flash 3.50 3.8 7-1
9 6 Parade Field 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 7 Lethal Move 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 5 Botswana Taps 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 3 Lemon Kick 20.00 8.3 16-1
7 4 Biarritz 20.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Armchair Jockey 6.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Alfons Walde (IRE) 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Toma Todo 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Benelux 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Li’l Tootsie 4.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Watrugonnadokaren 6.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Dream Princess 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Mariah’s Princess 8.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Perfect Impression 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Cashew 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Morning Frost 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Pie Killer 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Paytonsattheplate 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 5 Hold Tight 8.00 3 6-1
1A 6 Ghostlighter 8.00 3.4 6-1
13 9 Palazzi 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 McDowell 8.00 4.2 8-1
11 7 Story of the Night 12.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Beniah 15.00 5.5 10-1
7 3 Loyal Louie 20.00 6.2 12-1
12 8 B W P Special 30.00 8.6 16-1
9 4 Mr. Brutus 30.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Kobla Mas 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Freddy Flintshire 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hidden Enemy (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Wentru 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Ready to Show 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Custom Bobby’s 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Perfecture 8.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Guilty Lover 4.00 2.4 4-1
12 12 Gallant Star 4.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Martinized 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Volition 6.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Ready for Love 8.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Adieu Le Chat 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Aligned Interest 12.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Cohere 20.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Peytonwegotdonuts 20.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Catinandscatin 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Go Ortego Go 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Widdle Zee 30.00 10.3 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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