Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 28, 2020

November 28, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Goldie’s Delight 20.00 3 6-1
11 10 Caught Looking 15.00 3 6-1
1 1 Santa Rita 10.00 3 6-1
10 9 Saranya 2.50 3.1 6-1
9 8 Sovereign Power 8.00 3.8 7-1
13 12 Princess d’Oro 10.00 4 8-1
6 5 Len Lo Lady 4.50 6.4 12-1
12 11 Silk and Sugar 8.00 7 13-1
4 3 Point Wild 10.00 7.2 14-1
5 4 Tabor Hall 4.50 7.4 14-1
2 2 Chandelier Island 15.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Cuzzywuzzy 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Will’s Secret 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Hold the Fort 12.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Awesome Treat 50.00 10.7 20-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Willful Woman 6.00 3.7 7-1
10 9 Peace Broker 3.00 4 7-1
5 5 Dottie 12.00 4.1 8-1
12 11 Jail House Code 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 10 Illiogami 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Family Time 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 Sylvia Q 4.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 Ginkgo 10.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Best Cause 10.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Take Charge Lorin 20.00 8.1 15-1
13 12 She’s So Cali 20.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Grace’s Secret 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Solemn Oath 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Fair Game 20.00 10.2 19-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Scarred 2.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Lookin At Justice 10.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Cousin Larry 6.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Meister 5.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 All Bodes Well 15.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Camp Hope 5.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Hidden Stash 2.50 5.2 10-1
7 7 Language Barrier 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Cheffy 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Burrow 4.50 2 4-1
8 7 Holy Redeemer 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 4 Boldish 20.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Majestic Summer 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Dolder Grand 3.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Samurai Saint 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 5 Galilee 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 8 Warrior in Chief 15.00 7 13-1
11 10 Master of War 15.00 7.1 13-1
12 11 Shartle 20.00 9.5 18-1
4 4 Bugle of War 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Loumo 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Sister Annie 3.00 1.1 2-1
7 6 Southern Grayce 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 8 Catalan 8.00 2.5 5-1
8 7 Sparkle of Hope 12.00 2.8 5-1
14 11 Bell Day 4.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Ryan’s Rocket 12.00 5.8 11-1
4 3 Mucho Macho Momma 4.00 6.7 13-1
10 9 Silver Banshee 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 4 Twentytwenty Hoax 20.00 7.2 14-1
1 1 Salino 15.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 A Merry Prankster 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Wicked Street 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Fold Em 3.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Altered Shot 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Closet Shopper 15.00 SCRATCH
12 10 Core Values 15.00 10.5 20-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Grand Design 4.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Load Up Moe 15.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Big Power Red 20.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Hope and Dignity 15.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Scarlet Fusion 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Wick 8.00 5 10-1
1 1 Nakoda 12.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Private Network 3.50 5.2 10-1
9 9 Saqeel 12.00 5.2 10-1
8A 8 Royal Tryst 8.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Leblon 4.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Mountain King 15.00 8.5 16-1
13A 13 Partner’s Hope 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 6 Train to Artemus 3.00 1.1 2-1
1 1 Good With Numbers 2.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Corey 8.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Inject 10.00 2.1 4-1
6 5 Overdressed 8.00 2.2 4-1
9 8 Assertive Style 12.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Charlie’s Penny 4.00 4 7-1
8 7 Lichita 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Docs Seven 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Army Wife 4.50 1.5 3-1
6 5 Tiz Splendid News 5.00 1.8 3-1
9 7 Spun d’Etat 6.00 1.8 3-1
12 10 Torsie’s Charm 10.00 2 4-1
11 9 Puye Timing 10.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Minute Waltz 4.50 4.7 9-1
10 8 Poca Mucha 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 4 Oliviaofthedesert 4.00 5.3 10-1
7 6 Stellar Grace 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 She’s Forever 20.00 8.1 15-1
3 3 Momentous Miss 12.00 SCRATCH
8 8 What Goes On Tour 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Golden Rod S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Travel Column 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 2 Coach 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Lady Lilly 15.00 2.3 4-1
6 5 Clairiere 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 8 Princess Theorem 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Farsighted 15.00 3.2 6-1
10 9 Alexandria 15.00 3.7 7-1
7 6 Lady Traveler 20.00 5.8 11-1
8 7 Simply Ravishing 1.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 No Mo’ Spending 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 9 Mandaloun 2.50 1.2 2-1
11 10 Ultimate 8.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Twilight Blue 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Founder 3.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Chicken Truck 30.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Twirling Mamba 15.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Crazy Shot 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Pico d’Oro 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 King’s Ovation 8.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Smokin’ Jay 12.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Johny’s Fireball 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Inspector Frost 8.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Keepmeinmind 1.20 3.3 6-1
8 8 King Fury 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Swill 6.00 3.6 7-1
2A 2 Sittin On Go 5.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Oncoming Train 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Arabian Prince 8.00 4.6 9-1
5A 5 Smiley Sobotka 5.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Ultimate Badger 15.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Outasite 3.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 Vancouver Moon 10.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Runway Magic 4.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Fed Money 20.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Sabuda 6.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 Group Hug 5.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Nitro Time 15.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Sully’s Bro 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Repo Rocks 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Prince Maior 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Laughing Boy 10.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Persian Empire 20.00 8.8 17-1
13 13 Racarino 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Convention 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Patriarch Artie 10.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Wellman 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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