November 26, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Centerfold Angel | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seeds of Time | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shackleford County | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1A | 2 | Wish You Were Mine | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Merada | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gianna’s Gift | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Folly | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kimberley Dream | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Zabava | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | News Box | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Royal Commission | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Laddie Boy | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Reason to Soar | 1.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Most Mischief | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ernie Banks | 15.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ransack | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Kentucky Pride | 10.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Is More | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stay Home Mama | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bold Article | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Artie’s Rose | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sheshappy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Deputy Star | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Ann in the Middle | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Gita’s Lad | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mick’s Star | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Super Sol | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lone Rock | 1.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hardly a Secret | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Charlie’sarchangel | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Intrepid Heart | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Hot as Blue Blazes | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Targeted Return | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Pappy’s Best Girl | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Right Trappe | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Bertrada | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Winze | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Point Taken | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Penny | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | How Lucky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lovin Livin | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Andrea’s Angel | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Joan’s Way | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Jewel Azul | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Solomonic | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fra Mauro | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Substantial | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lngtermrelationshp | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Money for Mischief | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Indian Counselor | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Handy | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fever Temple | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Perfect Sense | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Happy Success | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tayet | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Anoush | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mejthaam | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bow Bow Girl | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Semble Juste (IRE) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Be Like Water | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hindsight | 2.50 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Princess d’Oro | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Charming Lady | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Zanadu | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Casual | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Secondary Market | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Union Maiden | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jeweled Princess | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lake Avenue | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beach Getaway | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Charette | 30.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A. P. Princess | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Strike Power | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bango | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Borracho | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sombeyay | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mucho | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Copper Town | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cove Blue | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | High Crime | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nifty | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rubus | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Chewing Gum | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dabo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Tough Love | 3.50 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Falls City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Another Broad | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cash Out | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smooth With a Kick | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bonny South | 1.60 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Market Rumor | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Envoutante | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Over Thinking | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Super Freak | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | High Regard | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Senor Jobim | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Coltonator | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Gallant Plunger | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pirate Rick | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Girolamo’s Attack | 3.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Warrior’s Map | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild Behavior | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Luna’s in Charge | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Motagally | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Answer In | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Guided Missile | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mr. Tip | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ancient Warrior | 15.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fire Marshall Bill | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Uber Kirk | 10.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.