Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 26, 2020

November 26, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Centerfold Angel 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Seeds of Time 2.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Shackleford County 3.00 3.5 7-1
1A 2 Wish You Were Mine 4.00 3.9 7-1
2 1 Merada 10.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Gianna’s Gift 8.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Folly 6.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Kimberley Dream 15.00 7.1 13-1
1 2 Zabava 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 News Box 10.00 2.5 5-1
7 6 Royal Commission 3.00 2.7 5-1
3 2 Laddie Boy 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Reason to Soar 1.00 4.9 9-1
2 1 Most Mischief 20.00 5 9-1
6 5 Ernie Banks 15.00 5 10-1
1 1 Ransack 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 6 Kentucky Pride 10.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 More Is More 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 4 Stay Home Mama 12.00 2.5 5-1
4 3 Bold Article 3.00 3 6-1
7 5 Artie’s Rose 2.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sheshappy 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Miss Deputy Star 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ann in the Middle 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Gita’s Lad 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Mick’s Star 10.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Super Sol 12.00 3 6-1
2 2 Lone Rock 1.00 4 8-1
6 6 Hardly a Secret 8.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Charlie’sarchangel 4.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Intrepid Heart 5.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 3 Hot as Blue Blazes 3.00 4.6 9-1
6 4 Targeted Return 5.00 4.8 9-1
11 7 Pappy’s Best Girl 20.00 5.5 10-1
12 8 Right Trappe 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 6 Bertrada 12.00 7.6 14-1
7 5 Winze 30.00 9.3 18-1
2 1 Point Taken 12.00 9.9 19-1
1 1 Good Penny 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 How Lucky 4.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Lovin Livin 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Andrea’s Angel 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Joan’s Way 12.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Jewel Azul 8.00 10.3 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Solomonic 5.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Fra Mauro 3.50 3.5 7-1
7 6 Substantial 2.50 4 8-1
4 3 Lngtermrelationshp 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 5 Money for Mischief 20.00 4.8 9-1
3 2 Indian Counselor 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 1 Handy 4.00 6 11-1
1 1 Fever Temple 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Perfect Sense 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Happy Success 6.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Tayet 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Anoush 3.50 3.5 7-1
8 7 Mejthaam 3.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Bow Bow Girl 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Semble Juste (IRE) 15.00 5 9-1
3 3 Be Like Water 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Hindsight 2.50 7.2 14-1
7 7 Princess d’Oro 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Charming Lady 10.00 3 6-1
1 1 Zanadu 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 4 Casual 4.50 3.4 6-1
4 3 Secondary Market 3.50 3.4 7-1
6 5 Union Maiden 4.00 4 8-1
9 8 Jeweled Princess 10.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Lake Avenue 3.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Beach Getaway 20.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Charette 30.00 7.1 14-1
3 3 A. P. Princess 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Strike Power 12.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Bango 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Borracho 20.00 3.8 7-1
7 6 Sombeyay 4.00 4.1 8-1
10 9 Mucho 15.00 4.7 9-1
13 12 Copper Town 10.00 4.9 9-1
9 8 Cove Blue 15.00 5.8 11-1
5 4 High Crime 15.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Nifty 12.00 6.6 13-1
6 5 Rubus 3.00 6.7 13-1
12 11 Chewing Gum 10.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Dabo 12.00 SCRATCH
11 10 Tough Love 3.50 10.9 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Falls City H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Another Broad 10.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Cash Out 20.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Smooth With a Kick 5.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Bonny South 1.60 3.4 6-1
9 8 Market Rumor 15.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Envoutante 2.50 5.1 10-1
8 7 Over Thinking 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Our Super Freak 4.50 6.6 12-1
7 7 High Regard 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Senor Jobim 4.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Coltonator 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 3 Gallant Plunger 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Pirate Rick 8.00 5.6 10-1
10 10 Girolamo’s Attack 3.50 6.7 13-1
11 11 Warrior’s Map 30.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Wild Behavior 8.00 9 17-1
9 9 Luna’s in Charge 12.00 9.3 18-1
3 2 Motagally 15.00 9.5 18-1
1A 15 Answer In 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Guided Missile 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mr. Tip 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ancient Warrior 15.00 10.2 19-1
2 1 Fire Marshall Bill 30.00 10.5 20-1
8 8 Uber Kirk 10.00 10.9 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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