November 22, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Winning Moment | 8.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baby White Sox | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | On Your Mark | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cavu Command | 20.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Jack Luvs Nova | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lake Nimrod | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Adventure | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Subiaco | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | First Empress | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Longleggedlaverne | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stylish Kitten | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dreamin’ of Munny | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | English Escort | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Better Biz | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Financial One | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whispering Pines | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Tapirado | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Powder River | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | April in Paris | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Runaway Mom | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tizemotionalgold | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | El Sobreviviente | 15.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Joe Frazier | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Starrininmydreams | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Angkor | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Texas Rule | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Private Island | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Naveen | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Star Mission | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Dirty Deeds | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Heaven’smymission | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Piquin | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | New Dice | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | On Temple High | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Living in America | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Final Game | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Cowboy Hippie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Spy Story | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rob the Rich | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spin Rate | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | One Nation | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Feature | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | The Big S | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Full Authority | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Macron | 6.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | O Besos | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sound Money | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Harrison’s Rose | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Supremacy | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ghostliner | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bob’s Edge | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Candy Man Rocket | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Oxfire | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Quantum Leap | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eye of Horus | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Dr. Roger | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Filippo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | B Maker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Manitowish | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Speitful Sam | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Admiral Lynch | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mojo Man | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wellabled | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hollis | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seven Nation Army | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Unleashed | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Smokin Nitro | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Milana | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lucressia | 6.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jersey Lillie | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Double Dare You | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cupp of Class | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Polished Gem | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Perks d’Oro | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Keitany | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Trail Town Queen | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.