Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 21, 2020

November 21, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Misty Blue 0.80 1.9 4-1
2 2 Richies Great Girl 4.00 2.5 5-1
6 5 Ms. Malevolence 20.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Rumpleminx 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Pick Up the Fone 3.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Henrys Deal 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Conoloway 5.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Treaty of Paris 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Speightful Charge 2.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Nostalgia 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Creative Legacy 10.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Itsallinthenotes 12.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 English 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 She’s a Deal 3.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Frond 4.50 1.5 3-1
6 5 Chocolate Kisses 1.00 1.6 3-1
5 4 Julia’s Ready 12.00 1.9 4-1
3A 3 Final Cut 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 His Glory 3.50 2.3 4-1
4A 4 High Regard 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Temper Tantrum 3.50 2.1 4-1
8 6 Yes Sir Robert 10.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 I’m Money 3.50 4.4 8-1
5 4 Hoistthemainsail 2.50 4.5 8-1
3 2 Press Snooze 10.00 4.5 9-1
4A 3 Richiesgotgame 3.50 4.6 9-1
9 7 C F V Red Nova 8.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Onenightstandards 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Baytown Bear 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cane Creek Road 1.80 1.5 3-1
3 3 Polsar 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Cody’s Legacy 12.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 A C Expressway 3.50 4 8-1
1 1 Gainer 15.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Devilinthebottle 12.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Samurai Prince 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Smoothie 3.50 6 11-1
7 7 Wild Demir 12.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Aasr 3.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Mystic Night 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Moliere 3.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Pledgeofallegiance 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Poterya 10.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Pintxos 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Ghostlore 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Speightstown Again 4.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Parking Ticket 10.00 2 4-1
4 4 Radiantrithym 10.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Just Fly 3.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Sunset Paula Jo 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Kiffle 2.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Take Charge Erica 6.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Heaven Escape 15.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Its Cold in Dehere 3.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Romani 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Wild Combo 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Marion Francis 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Total Malice 12.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Foolery 4.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Lofthouse 20.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Three Tipsy Chix 4.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Bel Fiore 12.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Polka Polenta 20.00 6.8 13-1
12 12 Trouble Making 15.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Elle Est Forte 20.00 8.1 15-1
7 7 Flippant 12.00 9.2 17-1
13 13 Euphoric 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cupp of Class 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Bow Bow Girl 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Thundering Creed 30.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Chilukki S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Unique Factor 10.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Finite 1.60 1.9 4-1
6 6 Risky Mandate 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 New Roo 20.00 2 4-1
9 9 Sanenus (CHI) 20.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Gold Standard 15.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Whoa Nellie 4.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Grand Cru Classe 2.50 4.7 9-1
7 7 Crazy Sexy Munny 50.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 New Eagle 3.00 1.7 3-1
7 6 Martial Eagle 6.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Gambler’s Fallacy 10.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Soul Beam 30.00 2.9 5-1
11 8 Smirk 4.00 3.6 7-1
10 7 Subdued 8.00 6.6 12-1
1 1 Bahama Channel 10.00 6.9 13-1
6 5 Uncle Gregory 10.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Mr. Mutadda 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Blanket of Roses 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Run This Town 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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