November 21, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful Karen | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Snicket | 1.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Lizzie | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Munnings Muse | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Brooklyn Heights | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Calidad | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vienna Code | 30.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Full Moon Fever | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Straw Into Gold | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vodka Lemonade | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Action Jackson | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | He’s a Lucky Devil | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ruse | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Danzigwiththestars | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Boss Bear | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Scotty | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hangout | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dreampoint | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arrowheart | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kanithappen | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Meister | 30.00 | 10.8 | 21-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Vicar’s Legend | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flash Drive | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Earned Success | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Breeze Burner | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ethan Hunt | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Summer Bourbon | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tale of Mist | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Professor Snape | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Super Garner | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Hieroglyphics | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conviction Trade | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arthur Kitt (GB) | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr. Alec | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Winning Factor | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blameless | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Value Engineering | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Road to Meath | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Money Ride | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bernin’ Thru Gold | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Advance Notice | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Siena Magic | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Big Boy Mo | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unrelenting Force | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mister Bobby | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Great Dansky | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Coach Villa | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Freedomofthepress | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Obligatory | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dame of Malta | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | White Frost | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lijana | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fool Yourself | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tic Tic Tic Boom | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Evvie Jets | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coworth Park | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Actually | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Bonnie T | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bella Bettina | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Little Nutter | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bee Catcher | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hard Count | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Traffic Pattern | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiergan | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Freedom and Whisky | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Silver Token | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ninja Dust | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | K. K. Ichikawa | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kid Chocolate | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Shootin the Breeze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Reckless Spirit | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Blizz | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Super Wicked Charm | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Elusive Ruler | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Double Shot | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | River Knight | 50.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Saratoga Pal | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Notorious Flirt | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Riken | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jemography | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wow Brown | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Revenger | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bustin Timberlake | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beachside | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Roll With My Posse | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Red Smith S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ziyad (GB) | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Aquaphobia | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Red Knight | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sadler’s Joy | 1.60 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Postulation | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Doctor Mounty | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | North Dakota | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tintoretto (GER) | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Real Factor | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fame to Famous | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Changi | 50.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Travelin Dani | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Michael’s Bad Boy | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bielefeld | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Empire Express | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Yousaidhello | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bricco | 2.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Selfmade | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Noble Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Liquor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Spiritual King | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Open Lengths | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Top of the Mint | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Justintimeforwine | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Daithi | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Theitalianamerican | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | True Palace | 30.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.