Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 20, 2020

November 20, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fun Paddy 2.50 2.6 5-1
1 1 My Wynter Rose 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Nessum Dorma 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Molly’s Game 3.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Lucky Be a Lady 5.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 I Dream of Lois 4.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Addison 3.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Saintsation 4.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 My Aunt Mims 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Recoded 1.60 3.6 7-1
2 2 Hampton Spring 10.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Sebs Princess 8.00 4.3 8-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Long Term Thinking 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Storm King 3.00 2 4-1
8 7 Ekati Champagne 15.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Templet 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Deo Volente 10.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Treasury 10.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 War Detonator 2.50 5.6 11-1
6 6 Smoky Topaz 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 2 Jimmy Joe 6.00 1.4 3-1
5 3 Johnny Cab 12.00 2.8 5-1
7 5 Riverboat Gambler 3.00 2.8 5-1
2 1 K W Captain Hook 10.00 3.8 7-1
6 4 High Proof 2.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Snow Man 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Uncork the Bottle 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 8 Easy to Bless 2.50 1.1 2-1
13A 11 Tiz a Bit Lucky 6.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Couger 10.00 4.6 9-1
12 10 Goody Two Sioux 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Passionate Heart 10.00 5.2 10-1
1A 1 Miss Magdalena 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 7 Fillmore East 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Just Life 6.00 7.2 14-1
6 5 Springfield Dusty 15.00 7.6 14-1
11 9 Shirleytheshopper 15.00 7.9 15-1
8 6 Found My Man 30.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Sunset At Mallory 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Spy a Star 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Boyfriend Material 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Moonoverseba 3.00 1.6 3-1
6 5 Jalen Journey 2.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Thomas Shelby 5.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Little Kansas 20.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Ruler of the Nile 4.50 5 9-1
5 5 Hurricane Highway 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Rock Star Parking 6.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Patty H 1.80 1.3 2-1
1 1 Taptime 12.00 2 4-1
9 9 Zapporita 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Aspropodia 15.00 4 7-1
7 7 General Ginny 5.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 J D’s Vista 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Hybrid Eclipse 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Tone My Betty 30.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Twilight Fantasy 5.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Royal Daaher 4.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Verb 3.50 2 4-1
7 7 American Mandate 1.80 2.1 4-1
5 5 Amani’s Kitten 20.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Chief Howcome 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Equal Justice 15.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Lady McKenzie 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Double Oaked 4.50 2.1 4-1
9 7 Decorated for Gold 15.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Strella’s War 6.00 4 7-1
4 4 Dixie Moll 15.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 She Wants More 10.00 4.5 9-1
8 6 Twelve Monarchs 12.00 4.7 9-1
10 8 B Sky High 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Skyvalue 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Bettyb 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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