November 20, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fun Paddy | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Wynter Rose | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nessum Dorma | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Molly’s Game | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Be a Lady | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | I Dream of Lois | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Addison | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saintsation | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Aunt Mims | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Recoded | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hampton Spring | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sebs Princess | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Long Term Thinking | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Storm King | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ekati Champagne | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Templet | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Deo Volente | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Treasury | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | War Detonator | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smoky Topaz | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Jimmy Joe | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Johnny Cab | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Riverboat Gambler | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | K W Captain Hook | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | High Proof | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snow Man | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Uncork the Bottle | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | Easy to Bless | 2.50 | 1.1 | 2-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Tiz a Bit Lucky | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Couger | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Goody Two Sioux | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Passionate Heart | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Miss Magdalena | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fillmore East | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Life | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Springfield Dusty | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Shirleytheshopper | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Found My Man | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sunset At Mallory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Spy a Star | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Boyfriend Material | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moonoverseba | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Jalen Journey | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thomas Shelby | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Little Kansas | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruler of the Nile | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hurricane Highway | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rock Star Parking | 6.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Patty H | 1.80 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Taptime | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Zapporita | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aspropodia | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | General Ginny | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | J D’s Vista | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hybrid Eclipse | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tone My Betty | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Twilight Fantasy | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Daaher | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Verb | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Mandate | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Amani’s Kitten | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chief Howcome | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Equal Justice | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Lady McKenzie | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Double Oaked | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Decorated for Gold | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strella’s War | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dixie Moll | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She Wants More | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Twelve Monarchs | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | B Sky High | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Skyvalue | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bettyb | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.