Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 19, 2020

November 19, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Try SFTB Plus for Free

$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Free 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 Domonette 3.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Stolen Beauty 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Lil Miss Hot Mess 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Field Daisey 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 French Rose 4.50 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Pickford 2.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Firewater Jake 10.00 2.9 6-1
4 4 Rare Form 1.80 3 6-1
6 6 Bobby Baby 8.00 4 8-1
2 2 Lookin for Eight 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Street to Indy 2.50 5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Twirling Dervish 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 6 Orencia 1.60 1.6 3-1
4 4 Ready N Waiting 10.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Alotmoreaction 6.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Kiss Mo 10.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Shesalittle Edgy 3.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Harbor Sunset 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Hard to Be Good 2.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Harvey Wallbanger 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Cashanova 4.00 2.4 5-1
6 5 Take Charge d’Oro 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Ransack 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Knight’s Cross 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sharecropper 2.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Box of Chocolates 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Front Man 8.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Indian Counselor 3.00 2.8 5-1
4 4 Blueridge Mountain 10.00 3 6-1
6 6 Motown Music 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Criminal Defense 8.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Storming Lion 3.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Koufax 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 So Dialed In 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Mean Machine 10.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Five Dreams 5.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Hard Asset 8.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Pretty Creative 15.00 5 9-1
12 12 Hush of a Storm 15.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Mount Athos 12.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Funny Actor 15.00 7 13-1
11 11 Devoted to You 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Startdfromdabottom 6.00 7.7 14-1
13 13 Wellman 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cabo Dorado 15.00 1.4 3-1
4 3 Sequin 1.40 1.6 3-1
1 1 Palomita 1.60 1.8 3-1
8 6 American Legend 15.00 2.6 5-1
7 5 Tap N Sway 30.00 3.8 7-1
5 4 Headfirst 50.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Heaven Escape 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Never Forget 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Tipsy Gal 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dreams of Valor 4.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Gun It 2.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Hembree 3.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Sir Alfred James 3.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Savvy 6.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Madison’s Luna 30.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Kaziranga 6.00 4.4 8-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bold Cowboy 6.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Monte Ne 3.50 1.6 3-1
9 9 Sam Miguel 15.00 2.3 4-1
11 10 Star for Betsy 15.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Deanos Cape 3.50 3.4 6-1
12 11 Peddlers Pride 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Hooperdrivesthboat 15.00 7 13-1
6 6 Schochoh 6.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Secret Move 20.00 8.2 15-1
5 5 Monkey Zone 20.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Ingenico 50.00 8.9 17-1
10 10 Juliano 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Upcoming Bankroll Contests
Wednesday Parx Racing
Begins Wed, Dec 2 12:25 PM ET
Wednesday Gulfstream Park
Begins Wed, Dec 2 12:35 PM ET
Wednesday Delta Downs
Begins Wed, Dec 2 1:55 PM ET
Wednesday Remington Park
Begins Wed, Dec 2 8:07 PM ET
Go To Lobby
SFTB Plus

$10 a Month Gets You DFS Optimizers, Horse Racing Advanced Stats, and More.

Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!

Learn More
SFTB Parties

Choose Your Events and Create Your Own Sportsbook for You and Your Friends.

Only $3 to set up, and includes unlimited guests.

Learn More
Scoreboard
Europe - Champions League
20'
FC Porto 0
Manchester City 0
Details
Europe - Champions League
20'
Atlético Madrid 0
Bayern Munich 0
Details
England - League Two
56'
Forest Green 0
Newport County 1
Details
Europe - Champions League
20'
Liverpool 0
Ajax 0
Details
NCAA Football
Final
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Charlotte 49ers
Details
England - Championship
35'
Bournemouth 0
Preston 1
Details
England - Championship
35'
QPR 1
Bristol City 0
Details
England - League Two
61'
Colchester 1
Crawley Town 1
Details
England - League Two
63'
Bradford 1
Cheltenham 1
Details
England - League Two
64'
Grimsby 1
Exeter 3
Details
Go to Scoreboard