November 19, 2020 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Free | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Domonette | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stolen Beauty | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Field Daisey | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | French Rose | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Waiver Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pickford | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Firewater Jake | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rare Form | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bobby Baby | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for Eight | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Street to Indy | 2.50 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Twirling Dervish | 6.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Orencia | 1.60 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ready N Waiting | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alotmoreaction | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kiss Mo | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shesalittle Edgy | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Harbor Sunset | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Hard to Be Good | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Harvey Wallbanger | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cashanova | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Take Charge d’Oro | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ransack | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Knight’s Cross | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sharecropper | 2.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Box of Chocolates | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Front Man | 8.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Indian Counselor | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blueridge Mountain | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Motown Music | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Criminal Defense | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Storming Lion | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Koufax | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | So Dialed In | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mean Machine | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Five Dreams | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hard Asset | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pretty Creative | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hush of a Storm | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mount Athos | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Funny Actor | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Devoted to You | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Startdfromdabottom | 6.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Wellman | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cabo Dorado | 15.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sequin | 1.40 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Palomita | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | American Legend | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tap N Sway | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Headfirst | 50.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heaven Escape | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Never Forget | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tipsy Gal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dreams of Valor | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gun It | 2.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hembree | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Alfred James | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Savvy | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madison’s Luna | 30.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kaziranga | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Bold Cowboy | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monte Ne | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sam Miguel | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Star for Betsy | 15.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Deanos Cape | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Peddlers Pride | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hooperdrivesthboat | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Schochoh | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Secret Move | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Monkey Zone | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ingenico | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Juliano | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.