Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 19, 2020

November 19, 2020 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Economic Policy 1.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Magnetron 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Local Counsel 4.00 3 6-1
4 4 Bozzini 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Mandatory Payout 10.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 King of Ranch 8.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 True Blue Giant 20.00 4.7 9-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Divided Sky (IRE) 2.50 2.1 4-1
9 9 Buyer’s Remorse 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Tea in China 6.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Celestial Dream 5.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Kiss and Run 5.00 2.9 6-1
8 8 Carefree Highway 15.00 4 8-1
7 7 Rapido Gatta 8.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Canarsie Girl 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Roma Carpe 30.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Idaka 50.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Bastet 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mirabell Mei 1.80 3 6-1
6 6 Mopolka 3.00 4 8-1
1 1 Strike Magic 12.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Little Red Frog 4.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Sterling Beauty 10.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Stuy Town Baby 20.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Tradeable 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Cold Hearted Cat 20.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Minit Maus 30.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Big Al’s Gal 20.00 9.3 18-1
11 11 Data Analytics 2.50 SCRATCH
12 12 Giggle Factory 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Magical Romance 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Alley to Calvary 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Appreciate 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mani Pedi 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Jennemily 3.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Flashndynamite 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Gone Glimmering 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Our Circle of Love 4.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Persisto 6.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Ujjayi 8.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Slimey 12.00 6.1 11-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 7 Polpis 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 6 Tanners Neck Lane 5.00 3.2 6-1
9 8 Noble Journey 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Western Advantage 4.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Perpetual Change 6.00 3.8 7-1
10 9 Humpday 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Dustgetsinyoureyes 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Eight Weeks Long 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Big Little Risk 15.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Hold the Irish 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Arrowheart 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Vodka Lemonade 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ruse 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Danzigwiththestars 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Mighty Meister 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Bohemian Ruby 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Sassy Melissa 5.00 1.7 3-1
12 12 Home for Christmas 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Mendham 4.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 B C Belle 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Mon Cherie 10.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Eau Claire 8.00 4.4 8-1
11 11 Pop the Bubbly 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Cara’s Dreamer 6.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Boomkittybyebye 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Gallina 12.00 6.5 12-1
8 8 Saluki 20.00 8.6 16-1
13 13 Nebo 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Theatrical Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Adriatic Rose 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Quiet Type 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Masu 30.00 11.2 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Tiz He the One 2.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 Three Technique 1.80 2.7 5-1
2 2 High Velocity 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Americanus 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Lil Commissioner 10.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Famished 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Chilly in Charge 15.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Forever Mo 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Kitten by the Sea 3.50 4.5 8-1
6 5 She Throws Heat 6.00 5.2 10-1
9 8 Candy Flower 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Flashing Red 4.00 5.4 10-1
12 11 Princess Fawzia 4.50 6.5 12-1
10 9 Come Storming 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 4 Overheated 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 7 Micromillion 12.00 8.6 16-1
7 6 My Candy Girl 15.00 8.7 16-1
13 12 More Mango 15.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Sky Kitten 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fun Finder 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Invaluable 1.20 SCRATCH
16 16 Customerexperience 2.50 SCRATCH
11 10 Positive Power 20.00 10.6 20-1
3 3 Imprsstheprofessor 30.00 11.1 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Ahead of Plan 3.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Duress 2.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Shiraz 5.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Lynchburg 8.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Bourbon Currency 8.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Last Opportunity (IRE) 10.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Godlovesasinner 15.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Noble Emotion 10.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Nothing Better 15.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Il Primo Sole (GB) 30.00 8 15-1
11 11 Fair Catch 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Yes and Yes 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dangerous Edge 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Freedom Force 3.50 3.8 7-1
13 13 Principal Dancer 4.50 3.9 7-1
9 9 Beach Front 6.00 4 8-1
12 12 Number One Dillon 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Macho Boy 15.00 5 10-1
10 10 Charge Ahead 12.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Blues City 12.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Larceny 15.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 No More Miracles 15.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 I Saw It All 20.00 7.8 15-1
4 4 Bank Gala 30.00 11 21-1
14 14 Rightdowngentlemen 30.00 11.2 21-1
2 2 Our American Star 30.00 11.8 22-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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